ConflictBarometer_2015

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
militant leaders as well as the Niger Delta Peoples Salvation
Front, repeatedly threatened violence in the run-up to the
elections. Political campaigning by both APC and PDP was
pervaded by inflammatory language and several rallies were
followed by violent clashes in 22 states, leaving a total of 67
dead, dozens injured, and many campaign offices damaged.
On January 9, suspected APC supporters set ablaze campaign
buses of Jonathan in Jos, Plateau State. On January 11 and 16,
dynamite explosions destroyed two APC secretariats in Rivers
State, injuring three people in Okrika Local Government Area
(LGA).
On February 2, a campaigning event in Lagos, Lagos State,
was followed by clashes between supporters and reprisals
by gunmen, leaving six people dead, and twelve injured. The
same day, PDP members allegedly defaced posters of the APC
candidates in Bakin Ruwa, Kaduna State. In retaliation, APC
supporters attacked PDP members on their way to a campaign
rally, resulting in eight fatalities and 25 damaged vehicles.
Two were killed and 50 wounded when PDP supporters attacked
an APC rally with explosives and guns in Okrika LGA,
Rivers, on February 17. In two attacks, nine members of the
APC were killed in Port Harcourt, Rivers, on March 7. APC
claimed PDP responsible for the killings. During election day
on March 28, small-scale election-related violent incidents
resulted in the deaths of 66 people, of whom most died in
the states of Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Ebonyi, and
Ondo. Eight officials from the Independent National Electoral
Commission were kidnapped in Enugu the same day. During
the elections, several polling stations as well as campaigning
offices were attacked and supporters of both parties clashed
with each other.
Sporadic violence continued in the aftermath of the elections.
For instance on April 3, when gunmen invaded Obrikom community
in Ogba-Egbemi-Ndoni LGA, Rivers, and killed nine
APC supporters. On April 11, suspected APC supporters
hacked a former chairman of PDP to death and killed another
six people in Ezza South LGA, Ebonyi, while several cars and
houses were burned. The next day, PDP and APC clashed in
Ife, Osun State. Sporadic violence resurfaced the following
day in several areas around the city, killing a total of three.
In its post-election report, the National Human Rights Commission
estimated a total of 200 people killed in electionrelated
violence before and after polls. Despite the significant
decrease in violent incidents since May, the conflict
continued violently. For instance, on November 8, clashes
between supporters of PDP and APC in Wukari LGA, Taraba
State, left at least seven people dead and 15 injured after
the election tribunal verdict had annulled the election of the
PDP candidate as Governor, replacing him by a member of
the APC. seb
NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOKO
HARAM)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 2003
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Boko Haram vs.
Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger
system/ideology
The conflict over system and ideology between the Islamist
group Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'Awati Wal-Jihad
(Boko Haram) and the governments of Nigeria, Cameroon,
Chad, and Niger continued at war level for the fifth consecutive
year.
The group was radically opposed to secular ideals and sought
to establish an Islamic caliphate in the region. The year
accounted for more than 12,000 conflict-related deaths,
among them 8,110 killed by Boko Haram, and 2.4 million
IDPs and refugees. The death toll thereby exceeded the
previous year's 10,000 fatalities, reaching the highest number
of deaths since the beginning of the conflict. Due to
the deteriorating security situation, presidential elections in
Nigeria were postponed from February 14 to March 28 and
29. The elections resulted in the victory of Muhammadu
Buhari over the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.
While the group had started its activities in northeast Nigeria
in 2003, it significantly increased its regional impact throughout
2015, conducting more than 100 attacks in neighboring
Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. The death toll outside Nigeria
almost tripled compared to the previous year, reaching over
2,000 fatalities. With 1,071 fatalities, Cameroon was the
most affected neighboring state, followed by Chad (568) and
Niger (464).
Furthermore, Boko Haram's regional supply routes for recruitment,
training, equipment, and funding had spread from Mali
to Sudan and the Central African Republic to Libya. At the end
of January, the AU mandated a 7,500-strong Multinational
Joint Task Force (MNJTF) from Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon,
Chad, and Niger in order to counter Boko Haram activities in
the region and recapture territory held by Boko Haram since
July 2014.
After Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi accepted the group's pledge
of allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), Boko Haram leader
Abubakar Shekau referred to the militant group as the Islamic
State's West African Province on March 7 [→ Syria, Iraq et
al. (IS)]. Boko Haram members fought alongside IS-affiliated
militants in Sirte, Libya, and underwent training in IS camps
in Iraq as well as in camps run by the IS-affiliated Movement
for Unity and Jihad in West Africa in Mali [→ Mali (Islamist
groups)]. Furthermore, the group increased propaganda campaigns
via social media to attract foreign fighters, a tactic
also used by IS.
Following a military offensive at the beginning of the year,
Boko Haram did not continue tactics of conquest and of
control of territory but proceeded with hit-and-run tactics.
At least 59 such attacks resulted in the deaths of about 850
people throughout the year. In the last four months of the
year, the number of suicide bombings increased to 37, most
of which involved women and girls blowing themselves up
in crowded places, leading to almost 500 fatalities. The most
fatal bombing occurred in Baga Sola, Chad, where five suicide
attacks killed 41 civilians at a fish market and a refugee camp
on October 10.
In the most fatal attack since the beginning of the conflict,
hundreds of Boko Haram militants completely destroyed the
town of Baga, Borno State, and its hinterlands from January
3 to 7 using RPGs, IEDs, and assault rifles. Reportedly, up
to 2,000 were killed and several thousand displaced. When
Boko Haram militants entered the town, civilians fled to
nearby Chad or surrounding villages. Military forces, including
those of the MNJTF, also fled their bases. Boko Haram
continued their attack in surrounding villages and returned
to Baga, going from house to house killing all civilians left
and burning houses. Nigerian Military (NA) immediately
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