ConflictBarometer_2015

ASIA AND OCEANIA
With 126 active conflicts in total, Asia and Oceania continued to be the region with the highest number of conflicts in
2015, accounting for more than a quarter of the total worldwide. While more than 90 percent of the conflicts were carried
out low-violently (63) or non-violently (57), the region continued to face six highly violent conflicts evenly distributed
among Myanmar, the Philippines, and Pakistan. While Pakistan's intrastate war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) and other
Islamist militant groups continued unabatedly for the ninth consecutive year, a war over secession escalated on the southern
Philippine island of Mindanao [→ Pakistan (Islamist militant groups); Philippines (BIFF, BIFM - MILF, government)]. With the
de-escalation of highly violent intrastate conflicts in China and India as well as the Indo-Pakistani conflict, the overall number
of limited wars decreased from five to four. In Myanmar, highly violent tensions erupted between the government and
militant groups in the Kokang region, constituting the country's second limited war besides its protracted conflict with the
Kachin Independence Army [→ China (Uyghurs / Xinjiang); India (inter-ethnic violence / Assam); Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan
State); Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin state)]. Both Pakistan and the Philippines saw one violent crisis escalating to a limited war
[→ Pakistan (Balochistan); Philippines (MILF)].
Asia and Oceania again was the region with the highest number of interstate conflicts, including three violent and eight
non-violent crises. Most prevalent conflict issues were related to territory (14) and international power (11). As in previous
years, the density of interstate crises between China and its neighbors in the East and South China Sea was particularly
high. On the Korean Peninsula, the situation escalated after South Korean soldiers had been wounded in several landmine
explosions.
Nine of the 14 observed conflicts in China were conducted violently. The highly violent conflict between the Uyghurs, on the
one hand, and the government as well as Han Chinese, on the other, de-escalated but remained violent [→ China (Uyghurs /
Xinjiang)]. Although casualties decreased in total, violence was carried out almost every month, also involving other countries
such as Thailand and Turkey. With the adoption of the National Security Law in July, the Chinese government strengthened
its combat against alleged separatists and terrorists in the border regions. Additionally, dozens of civil rights activists and
dissidents were reportedly arrested in July. In the first half of the year, heavy fighting between government forces and the
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army left at least 750 people dead, 450 injured, and tens of thousands internally
displaced in Shan State, reviving a Burmese conflict which had remained quiet for several years [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan
State)]. Following almost two years of negotiations between the government and ethnic armed groups, a nationwide ceasefire
in Myanmar was agreed upon by the signatories on October 15. However, not all armed groups agreed with the ceasefire,
among them was the largest one, the United Wa State Army. Some of the non-signatories met for talks about their future
involvement and contributions to national politics. However, fighting erupted anew in their controlled territory [→ Myanmar
(KIA, KIO / Kachin State)]. On November 8, opposition party National League for Democracy won the general elections with an
absolute majority [→ Myanmar (opposition)]. In the Philippines, the conflict between the government and the Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF) showed mixed developments. Despite one violent incident claiming the lives of over 50 people, civil
and military cooperation as well as joint infrastructural development flourished [→ Philippines (MILF)]. This year, the conflict
between government forces and MILF fighters, on the one hand, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, on the
other, escalated to a war [Philippines (BIFM, BIFF MILF, government)]. In Indonesia, the government conducted large-scale
security operations on the island of Sulawesi and mobilized about 150,000 security personnel throughout the country in
response to threats by IS-affiliated militants [→ Indonesia (Islamist militant groups)]. The country also saw an increase of
subnational, religious violence [→ Indonesia (Muslims Hindus)], which diffused to the provinces of Aceh and Papua, sites
of long-standing secession conflicts [→ Indonesia (Aceh); Indonesia (Papua)].
In the eastern part of South Asia, an increase of low-intensity violence was observed. Seven conflicts escalated to a violent
level, four of them being located in Nepal. Following an earthquake in April, leaving over 8,800 people dead, the major
parties agreed upon a new constitution after years of deadlock. However, the future demarcation of provinces and the
question of secularism sparked violent protests countrywide. The ethnic Madhesis blocked the border to India, causing
a severe shortage of fuel and medicine [→ Nepal (Madhesis, Tharus / Terai)]. Similarly, right-wing Hindu groups staged
violent protests demanding the declaration of Nepal as a Hindu state [→ Nepal (right-wing Hindu groups)]. Additionally,
Maldivian opposition supporters engaged in violent clashes with security forces after the arrest and conviction of former
president and opposition leader Mohammed Nasheed [→ Maldives (opposition)]. Furthermore, the situation in Bangladesh
aggravated. The tensions between the ruling Awami League and the oppositional Bangladesh Nationalist Party cumulated
in a months-long road blockade in the first half of the year, during which reportedly over 100 people were killed and
up to 14,000 arrested [→ Bangladesh (opposition)]. Throughout the year, the government continued the prosecution and
execution of opposition leaders. Meanwhile, Islamist violence increased, mainly targeting secular bloggers, Hindus, Shiites,
and non-Muslim foreigners [→ Bangladesh (Islamist groups)].
Various militant groups in northeastern India continued their violent struggle for secession. Tensions in the region intensified
after the Khaplang-led faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) had ended its ceasefire with the Indian
government and nine armed groups from Assam, Manipur, and after Nagaland had declared to launch a comprehensive
umbrella organization called the United Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFW) [→ India (Manipur); India (NSCN
factions et al. / Nagaland); India (ULFA-I et al. / Assam)]. The demand by radical Sikh groups for an independent state of
Khalistan regained momentum in the northern states of Punjab and Kashmir, with pro-Khalistan Sikhs also alienating more
moderate Sikh groups [→ India (Sikhs)]. In Gujarat state, the Patel community magnified its demand for socioeconomic
benefits under the socioeconomic reservation system [→ India (Patels et al)]. Communal violence over the consumption
of beef was reported throughout the year in Maharashtra and Haryana [→ India (Hindus Muslims)]. Contrastingly, in Sri
Lanka, the conflict between Sinhalese nationalists and Buddhists, on the one hand, and Muslims and Christians, on the other,
de-escalated after the election of President Maithripala Sirisena in January.
To combat terrorism in Pakistan, the government set up military courts to pass faster judgements in terrorism-related
cases and targeted financial and media resources of militant groups. Moreover, executions continued throughout the year.
In another effort to bring about regional stability, hundreds of suspected Baloch militants were granted amnesty by the
124