ConflictBarometer_2015

GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA
ANALYSIS INTRASTATE - INTERSTATE - SUBSTATE
According to the HIIK Methodology, an interstate conflict is
conducted between two or more states whereas intrastate
conflicts are conducted between non-state actors and national
governments. Substate conflicts comprise only nonstate
actors. In 2015, the HIIK counted 74 interstate conflicts,
of which ten were fought on a violent level. In contrast,
61 percent of all intrastate conflicts (172/280) and 75
percent of all substate conflicts (41/55) were violent. The
HIIK ob-served four new interstate conflicts and three new
intrastate conflicts in 2015.
In Europe, only one of the 17 interstate conflicts was
fought with violent means. The violent crisis between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over the break-away region
Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as belonging
to Azerbaijan but mostly populated by ethnic Armenians,
continued. 30 percent of all European intrastate conflicts
(13/43) were conducted on a violent level, with the sole
highly violent conflict being observed in Ukraine's Donbas
region. The only two substate conflicts continued between
right-wing and left-wing mili-tants in Greece and between
right-wing militants and ethnic minorities in Hungary.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, eight interstate conflicts were observed,
of which only the violent crisis between Sudan and
South Sudan was conducted on a violent level. In comparision,
49 of the 75 intrastate conflicts and eleven of the
14 substate conflicts were fought violently.
The Americas saw 16 cases of interstate conflict. The violent
crisis over border security between the USA and Mexico was
the only violent interstate conflict in the region. 85 percent
of the 34 intrastate conflicts (29/34) and all three substate
conflicts reached a violent level.
In Asia and Oceania, three of the 21 interstate conflicts
saw the use of violence, while more than 60 percent
(50/80) of all intrastate conflicts and 64 percent (16/25) of
all substate conflicts were fought violently.
The Middle East and Maghreb saw the highest share of
vio-lent interstate conflicts (4/12), with three violent crises
taking place in the context of the Syrian civil war. Of these,
a new conflict emerged between Turkey and Russia after the
down-ing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish aircraft. 65
percent of all intrastate conflicts (31/48) and all ten substate
conflicts were violent. The limited war between different
tribes constituted the only highly violent substate conflict in
the region. (jli)
DYNAMICS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL CONFLICTS
Of the 402 conflicts that continued in 2015, 124 witnessed a
change in intensity. A total of 59 conflicts escalated and 65
de-escalated. Additionally, seven new conflicts were
registered in 2015, of which four reached the level of a
violent crisis [→ Republic of Congo (opposition); Nicaragua
(indigenous groups); Russia Turkey; Serbia (Kosovo –
opposition)].
One conflict over subnational predominance and resources
in Myanmar escalated by three levels from a dispute to a
limited war [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State)].
Seven conflicts escalated by two levels. For instance, Asia
and Oceania, the Maldives, Myanmar, and Nepal saw an escalation
of disputes with the opposition to violent crises [→
Maldives (opposition); Myanmar (opposition); Nepal (opposition)].
In the region of the Middle East and Maghreb, the
2014 violent crisis over autonomy between the PKK and the
Turkish government escalated to a war [→ Turkey (PKK)]. In
Sub-Saharan Africa, a conflict over national power in Sierra
Leone escalated from the level of a dispute to a violent crisis
[→ Sierra Leone (APC - SLPP)].
In 13 cases, former violent crises de-escalated to disputes. In
Europe, the conflict over autonomy and the orientation of the
political system between the Serbian minority and the
Kosovar government de-escalated to a dispute [→ Serbia
(Serbian minority – Kosovar government)]. Two examples for
the same dynamic in the Americas and in Sub-Saharan Africa,
respectively, constituted the conflict over autonomy and
resources in Brazil and the dispute between Christians and
Muslims in Nigeria [→ Brazil (indigenous groups); Nigeria
(Christians – Muslims)]. In Asia and Oceania, four violent
crises de-escalated to dispute level, such as the opposition
conflict in Thailand [→ Thailand (opposition)]. Five conflicts
with the same intensity change could be observed in the
Middle East and Maghreb.
The war over secession, the orientation of the political
system, and resources between Hamas and the Israeli
government de-escalated by two levels to a violent crisis [→
Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian Territories)]. (psc)
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