ConflictBarometer_2015

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
the constitutional amendment. After authorities had banned
a planned opposition protest, thousands of anti-government
protesters, however, held a demonstration in Brazzaville on
October 20. The police fired warning shots and used tear gas
to disperse the demonstrators, while the latter installed barricades
and set tires on fire. Subsequently, the police allegedly
opened fire at the crowd, killing at least four people after
protesters had refused to disperse. FROCAD claimed that at
least 20 people were killed. Demonstrators also attacked police
stations in the southern part of the city. Simultaneously,
the government shut down phone lines and internet services
in the capital. In addition, a FROCAD-organized protest took
place in Point-Noire, eponymous region, where police shot at
demonstrators, leaving at least two people dead and three injured
on October 17. In the referendum on October 25, more
than 92 percent voted in favor of the amended version of the
constitution with an electoral turnout of about 72 percent.
The changes allowed the president to run for a third term
and increased the maximum age of presidential candidates
to over 70. The opposition accused the government of having
forged the turnout figure, estimating a turnout of around ten
percent. They had called for a boycott of the referendum and
had urged their supporters to avoid violence. On October
30, after authorities had renewed a ban on protests in the
capital, several hundred opposition supporters attended a
ceremony in Brazzaville, commemorating the people killed
during anti-government protests. On November 6, Nguesso
promulgated the new constitution. The same day, opposition
groups met with UN-appointed mediator Abdoulaye Bathily,
again demanding the annulment of the amendment. On December
1, FROCAD President Paulin Makaya was sentenced
to jail for his participation in the protest on October 20, arson,
and the illegal possession of weapons. Between December
20 and 23, the police arrested at least 100 people in southern
Brazzaville. While human rights organizations accused the
security forces of detaining opposition members, the police
claimed to have detained criminals.
On December 22, Nguesso announced to hold presidential
elections in the first trimester in 2016 instead of in June.
Five days later, opposition groups declared to participate
only under certain conditions, demanding, for instance, the
establishment of an independent electoral commission. jas
SENEGAL (MFDC / CASAMANCE)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1982
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
MFDC vs. government
secession
The conflict over the secession of the Casamance region
between the Casamance Movement of Democratic Forces
(MFDC) and the government escalated to a violent crisis despite
ongoing peace efforts.
In the course of the year, violence was restricted to the
Ziguinchor region in Casamance. On April 8, fights involving
members of MFDC and the government between the towns
of Siganar and Emaye, Ziguinchor, left several MFDC members
injured. In retaliation, MFDC militants attacked an army
post in Emaye three days later. In the exchange of gunfire,
one soldier was wounded while numerous members of MFDC
were allegedly killed. On August 15, MFDC militants attacked
several vehicles in Diarone, Ziguinchor, robbing the passengers
and raping one woman. They had disappeared into the
forest before members of the army arrived. When members
of MFDC resisted in a drug raid in Mongone, Ziguinchor, on
October 26, a firefight between the militants and authorities
broke out. There were no fatalities, but several MFDC members
were arrested. Four days later, at least 20 members of
MFDC used RPGs to attack soldiers on the National Road 5
between the villages Badia and Djignaky, Ziguinchor. At least
three soldiers were wounded in the fighting while injuries
among members of MFDC were reported.
Throughout the year, efforts to resolve the conflict continued.
When President Macky Sall visited Casamance for a week in
February, he inaugurated several development projects as
part of a greater economic strategy intended to resolve the
conflict in the region. Women's organizations marched several
times, calling for ultimate peace in the region and their
inclusion in the peace process. For instance, they protested
on May 3 in Kédougou in the eponymous region. On May
23, several hundred women belonging to different women's
organizations from Guinea-Bissau and Casamance marched
from the airport to the Place de héros in Guinea-Bissau's
capital Bissau and handed over a memorandum to the parliament's
president. The same objectives were discussed during
a conclave held by women from Senegal, the Gambia, and
Guinea-Bissau that took place in the city of Ziguinchor in the
eponymous region from September 18 to 19. On December
26, 120 imams and scholars jointly called for peace in the
region during sessions of Koran reading and praying taking
place in the community Suelle, Ziguinchor. joh
SOMALIA (HABR GEDIR BIYMAL / LOWER
SHABELLE)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2013
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Habr Gedir militias vs. Biymal militias
subnational predominance
The violent crisis over subnational predominance between
the Habr Gedir clan and the Biymal clan in the Lower Shabelle
region continued. Tensions rose in recent years between the
Biymal clan, who initially populated the region, and the Habr
Gedir clan, who resettled to Lower Shabelle in more recent
times.
On January 10, government administrators initiated mediation
talks between the two rival clans in Qoryolay district
and restarted talks in Afgooye district later that month. The
president of South West state, Sharif Sheikh Aden, led the
conference in which both clans participated. They signed a
nine-point agreement on January 28 that included obeying
Somali customary law as well as the legal system of the
government and the acceptance of the presence of security
forces in the area. On May 23, reports claimed that fighting
between two clan militias in the town of Marka caused casualties.
A few days later, the town commissioner denied any
fighting between the two rival clans had taken place, while
traditional elders called for the end of fighting. On June
17, the two clans reached a ceasefire agreement. However,
on July 5, fighting broke out in Buufoow locality, leaving at
least two people dead and several injured. On August 8,
fighting between clan militias broke out again in Marka town,
resulting in the death of at least three people. The AU and
the government ordered the relocation of AU peacekeepers
and government troops to Marka. While AU soldiers captured
the town of Gendershe on October 15, an AU soldier shot
dead a traditional clan elder and injured two bystanders.
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