ConflictBarometer_2015

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Transition Council (NTC) adopted a new electoral code, banning
supporters of Compaoré from running in the presidential
elections. In response, CDP and other parties withdrew from
the NTC to protest against the decision. Tensions between
RSP and Zida revived when the military arrested three RSP
members on June 29 charged with involvement in a planned
coup. Interim President Michel Kafando reached a compromise
between both sides on July 16, taking over the defense
portfolio.
In reaction to a report of the Reconciliation Commission
recommending the RSP's dissolution, RSP members led by
Compaoré affiliate General Gilbert Diendéré staged a coup
on September 16, storming a cabinet meeting and abducting
Zida and Kafando. The following day, Diendéré declared
himself president. Subsequently, hundreds of thousands
of protesters took to the streets of the capital, demanding
the interim government's return. RSP dispersed the demonstrations
using live ammunition, killing at least eleven and
injuring more than 270. On September 21, the military entered
Ouagadougou and issued an ultimatum demanding the
RSP's surrender and disarmament. This was refused by Diendéré.
After ECOWAS-mediated peace talks on September
22, the RSP agreed to step down and to return to the barracks.
Two days later, Kafando was reinstated as interim president.
On September 26, the interim government dissolved the RSP,
imposing asset freezes on alleged coup supporters and establishing
an investigation commission. On October 1, Diendéré
surrendered and was arrested charged with crimes against
humanity, attack on state security, and treason. Furthermore,
on October 10, the investigation commission accused
Diendéré and Djibril Bassolé, former foreign minister under
Compaoré, of colluding with Islamist groups to destabilize the
country. Four days later, the interim government rescheduled
presidential elections for November 29. With 53.49 percent
of the votes, Roch Kaboré, former prime minister and candidate
of the People's Movement for Progress (MPP), won the
presidential elections.
On November 12, the leaked recording of a conversation between
Bassolé and Côte d'Ivoire National Assembly Speaker
Guillaume Soro held in mid-September revealed an alleged
plan to stage further attacks in Burkina Faso in order to prevent
the coup's looming failure.
On December 4, judicial authorities issued an international
arrest warrant against Compaoré charging him with the involvement
in the murder of his predecessor Thomas Sankara.
Two days later, Diendéré was indicted on the same charges.
Zida stated on December 27 that 20 RSP members had been
arrested for plotting to free Diendéré and Bassolé from prison.
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BURUNDI (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 2006
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
ADC-Ikibiri et al. vs. government
national power
The national power conflict between opposition parties
primarily organized under the Democratic Alliance for the
Change-Ikibiri (ADC-Ikibiri) and the government led by President
Pierre Nkurunziza's National Council for the Defense of
Democracy (CNDD-FDD) escalated to a limited war. Throughout
the year, violence left at least 300 people dead, hundreds
injured, and more than 230,000 displaced. Furthermore, security
forces arrested several hundred opposition members.
The alliance ADC-Ikibiri comprised opposition parties such
as Union for National Progress (UPRONA), Movement for Solidarity
and Democracy (MSD), Front for Democracy in Burundi
(FRODEBU), National Forces of Liberation (FNL), Union for
Peace and Democracy (UDP), and Hope of the Burundians.
The Hutu-dominated CNDD-FDD was supported by its youth
wing Imbonerakure.
The conflict revolved around the question whether or not
President Pierre Nkurunziza was allowed to run for a third
term and intensified in the run-up of parliamentary and
presidential elections in June and July. While the 2005
constitution limited presidential terms to two, parts of the
government claimed that the first term between 2005 and
2010 did not count since Nkurunziza was appointed by
parliament and not elected. In contrast, opposition members
insisted that he had already served two terms. Ahead of the
elections, different national and international actors such as
the Civil Society Organization Forum, the National Council
of Roman Catholic Bishops, and UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-Moon expressed their opposition against a third term of
Nkurunziza. Police and military stakeholders were divided
over this issue. While the chief of police expressed his
readiness to support the president with force, the minister of
defense underlined the neutrality of the army.
On March 20, more than 70 CNDD-FDD members signed a
petition urging Nkurunziza not to run. About 1,000 opposition
members protested in the capital Bujumbura on April 17
against a third term. After some protesters threw stones, the
police responded with tear gas and water cannons. At least
two policemen were injured, 65 protesters were arrested
and charged with participating in an armed insurrection. On
April 25, Pascal Nyabenda, head of CNDD-FDD, announced
that Nkurunziza was chosen as presidential candidate for the
party. The opposition called for a mass demonstration the
next day. The rally turned violent when protesters threw
stones and lit tires, while the police responded with tear gas
and water cannons and fired live ammunition in the air. Two
protesters were killed and five injured. In the following night,
two more people were killed by Imbonerakure. In a press
statement on April 26, the chairperson of the AU, Dlamini
Zuma, ''called on all stakeholders to strictly respect the 2000
Arusha Agreement, the constitution, and the electoral law.''
On April 27, the government banned nationwide broadcasts
by Burundi's main independent radio stations and deployed
the army to Bujumbura. Three days later, social networks,
including Twitter and Facebook, were shut down and Imbonerakure
were reported to mark houses of those opposing a
third term. On May 5, the Constitutional Court allowed Nkurunziza
to run for a third term, arguing that he was appointed
in 2005 and not elected. One day before, the court's vice
president, Sylvère Nimpagaritse, had fled to Rwanda, stating
that judges had come under enormous pressure to decide
in favor of a third term. On May 11, the former Burundian
presidents Jean-Baptiste Bagaza, Pierre Buyoya, Sylvestre
Ntibantunganya, and Domitien Ndayizeye the former two
being Tutsi, the latter two Hutu addressed the East African
Community (EAC) in a letter, stating that they regarded Nkurunziza's
bid as unconstitutional.
Internal military divisions culminated in an attempted coup
d'état on May 13 by Major General Godefroid Niyombare.
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