ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
Bridge in Moscow. Subsequently, tens of thousands gathered
in St. Petersburg and Moscow to commemorate Nemtsov
on March 1. Despite government investigations, it remained
unclear who had conducted the assaults until the end of the
year.
In spite of a ban, about 100 demonstrators gathered on
Bolotnaya Square on May 6 at the third anniversary of the
violent clashes that had followed Putin's inauguration. Police
detained 65 protesters. On May 23, Putin signed the law
on ''undesirable organizations'', allowing prosecutors to ban
international NGOs if they were considered a threat to constitutional
order or national security. Human rights groups and
oppositional parties expressed their concern and deemed
the law an attempt to restrict civil society. On May 30, during
an unsanctioned rally organized by LGBT activists, riot police
detained around 20 people, including both LGBT activists
and members of the Orthodox 'God's Will' movement who
had tried to interrupt the rally.
In the September 13 elections comprising of both the regional
parliamentary elections in eleven, and gubernatorial elections
in 21 regions, ruling party United Russia (UR) claimed
countrywide victories. While the party gained between 50 to
70 percent of the votes in the regional parliaments, UR succeeded
in 19 out of 21 regions in the governor elections. In
Smolensk Oblast, UR was defeated by the Liberal Democratic
party candidate, whereas Sergey Levchenko of the Communist
Party won the second round of voting in Irkutsk Oblast.
Shortly after the elections, between 2,000 and 4,000
protesters, including POP leader Aleksey Navalny and Ilya
Yashin of the PARNAS party, rallied in Moscow, claiming
fraud, manipulation, and irregularities. Prior to the elections,
the Justice Ministry had cancelled the registration of
Navalny's POP in all regions beside the Kostroma Oblast, on
the grounds that it had failed to register its regional branches
within the required period of time.
On December 4, the Duma passed a law allowing the Constitutional
Court to overrule judgments by the European Court
of Human Rights if deemed incompatible with the constitution.
In reaction, activists gathered at Pushkin square in Moscow
to protest the decision on December 12. Police arrested 33
protesters, including the head of the Yabloko party Sergei
Mitrokhin and Lev Ponomaryov, director of the For Human
Rights movement. cbe
RUSSIA ESTONIA
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 1994
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Russia vs. Estonia
territory, international power
The non-violent conflict between Russia and Estonia over
the demarcation of the common border and international
power continued. Besides Estonia's participation in NATO
maneuvers, Russia repeatedly criticized the treatment of the
Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltic states as discriminatory
[→ Estonia (Russian-speaking minority)].
On several occasions, Estonian government officials called
for an extension of sanctions against Russia in case of noncompliance
with the Minsk agreement [→ USA, EU et al.
Russia]. Furthermore, Estonia and other Baltic states repeatedly
called for an increase in NATO military presence on their
territory, which Russia considered a ''destabilizing provocation''
and a ''direct attack on the principles of the Russia-NATO
Founding Act.'' Estonia, along with other European states, repeatedly
expressed support for a common media strategy
targeting Russian-speakers in Eastern Europe, in response to
the Russian media coverage which these countries regarded
as a ''hybrid war.'' On September 14 and October 15, Estonia
refused entry to representatives of Russian media such as
Rossiya Segodnya and VGTRK, a step criticized by Russia as
restriction of freedom of speech and censorship.
On March 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin forwarded the
Russian-Estonian border treaty, signed on 02/18/14, to the
Duma for ratification. The treaty passed the first reading in
the Estonian Parliament on November 26.
On June 30, the Russian prosecutor-general's office announced
a review of the Soviet Union's decision to recognize
the independence of the Baltic states, a measure
later presented as a formality. Estonian Foreign Minister
Keit Pentus-Rosimannus called this an example of the ''imperialistic
mood'' existing in Russia. On August 27, Estonia
announced the planned installation of a fence along its border
with Russia as of the beginning of 2018, which the head
of Russian Parliament's International Committee Konstantin
Kosachev deemed as ''ideological'' and an aim to depict
Russia as a threat for Europe. On November 5, the justice
ministers of the Baltic states signed a memorandum agreeing
to submit a claim to Russia for the compensation of damage
inflicted on their states during Soviet occupation.
Soldiers from several NATO members, including the U.S., participated
in a military parade celebrating Estonia's Independence
Day in Narva, Ida-Viru County, on the Russian-Estonian
border on February 24. The next day, Russia conducted military
drills including 2,000 paratroopers and armored units
in the Pskov region, bordering Estonia. On May 4, Estonia
started its largest-ever military exercise involving 13,000 soldiers
and lasting two weeks. On September 1, the NATO Force
Integration Unit to facilitate rapid deployment of forces was
activated in Estonia. Estonia accused Russian military planes
of violating its airspace on June 22, July 9, and December 17.
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RUSSIA GEORGIA
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 1992
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Russia vs. Georgia
international power
The conflict between Russia and Georgia continued on a nonviolent
level. On June 19, Georgia joined the EU's sanction
against Russia banning the import of products manufactured
in Crimea [→ USA, EU et al. Russia]. Russia, however,
refrained from adding Georgia to its list of sanctioned countries.
Both governments upheld informal diplomatic contacts
in the framework of three working meetings in the Czech
capital Prague regarding humanitarian and economic issues.
Russian ratification of integration treaties with the breakaway
Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well
as the ''borderization'' processes in South Ossetia led to a
further deterioration of bilateral relations [→ Georgia (South
Ossetia); Georgia (Abkhazia)].
After NATO exercises had taken place in the Black Sea on
March 4, the Russian Defense Ministry launched a monthlong
large-scale military exercise involving 2,000 troops in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia the following day. Starting from
August 17, Russia again launched military exercises in the
two regions, which the Georgian President Giorgi Margve-
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