ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
In 2015, with a total of 62, the number of conflicts increased by one compared to 2014. As in the previous years, only
one highly violent conflict was observed in Europe. Nevertheless, the number of violent conflicts increased by one to a
total of 15. A violent crisis erupted in 2015 between opposition parties and the Kosovar government [→ Serbia (Kosovo
- opposition)]. While the situation in the Donbas remained at the highest intensity level, last year's two limited wars, one
between various opposition groups and the Ukrainian government and the other between Islamist militants and the Russian
government in Northern Caucasus, de-escalated to the level of a violent crisis [→ Ukraine (Donbas); Ukraine (opposition);
Russia (Islamist militants / Northern Caucasus)]. In total, a quarter of all conflicts in the region were violent. Whereas most of
them were located in Ukraine, South Caucasus, and Western Balkan states, three violent conflicts took place in EU member
states. Compared to other regions, Europe remained relatively calm with a share of nearly two thirds of the observed conflicts
being non-violent. By that, Europe is the only region in 2015 where the number of non-violent conflicts exceeded the
number of violent ones. Accounting for more than one third of all conflicts in the region, the majority of conflicts in Europe
were disputes. The number of violent crises increased from eleven to 16 compared to last year. Most frequently, European
conflicts concerned system/ideology (20), secession (15), and autonomy (13).
The relatively new Ukrainian government under President Petro Poroschenko still had to face several inter- and intrastate
conflicts [→ Russia - Ukraine; Ukraine (Crimea); Ukraine (Crimean Tatars); Ukraine (Donbas); Ukraine (opposition); Ukraine
(right-wing militants)]. At least 4,327 fatalities and more than 985,000 refugees were counted in the conflict between the
government supported by different groups, on the one side, and the Donetsk People's Republic as well as the Luhansk
People's Republic on the other [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. Even though Minsk II negotiated between the participants of the
Normandy format and aimed to ease the tension, the situation remained at war level throughout the year. Both conflict
parties blamed each other for violating ceasefire, torturing, and committing war crimes. The conflict between the government
and several opposition groups de-escalated from a limited war to a violent conflict with approx. 40 bomb and arson attacks
counted in 2015 [→ Ukraine (opposition)]. In total, three out of six conflicts affecting Ukraine were violent. Furthermore,
Ukraine played an important role in the conflict between the USA, EU, and several other states, on the one hand, and Russia
on the other. While the Council of Europe extended the EU sanctions against Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea
and Sevastopol until 06/23/16, Russia announced an embargo on imports of agricultural products from the EU, US, Norway,
Canada, and Australia as of 08/07/2015.
The ongoing conflict between the Transnistrian regional government and the Moldovan government escalated to a violent
conflict when guards of the de-facto Transnistrian border injured a Moldovan citizen on April 1 [→ Moldova (Transnistria)].
Even though the conflict remained predominantly non-violent, no signs of an effective conflict resolution were reported in
2015.
For the first time since its beginning in 1989, the system/ideology and secession conflict between Islamist militants and the
Russian government in the Northern Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) de-escalated to a violent crisis. However, the conflict
still accounted for approx. 210 deaths. In the South Caucasus region, three violent crises were observed. The interstate
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory as well as the intrastate conflict between the
self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the central Azerbaijani government continued at a violent level and reached
a new peak. At least 81 fatalities were counted in both conflicts [→ Armenia Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)].
In Armenia, countrywide mass protests over electricity tariffs resulted in clashes between protesters and riot police when
the latter used batons and water cannon to disperse a sit-in strike in Yerevan [→ Armenia (opposition)]. In Georgia, the
opposition conflict turned violent when supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition and the oppositional United
National Movement clashed in Zugdidi, Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region [→ Georgia (opposition)].
In the Balkan region, especially the situation in Kosovo and neighboring FYROM remained tense. The promising development
of the normalization process between Serbia and Kosovo was overshadowed by violent outbursts between opposition
parties led by the self-determination movement Vetevendosje, on the one hand, and the Kosovar government on the other.
In FYROM, violent clashes in early May between ethnic Albanian militants and the police in Kumanovo left 22 people dead,
while continuous protests by the broad opposition movement against the government lead to early elections in January
2016 [→ FYROM (Albanian minority); FYROM (opposition)]. Throughout the Balkans, the threat of radical Islam remained
visible, resulting in the conviction of several Islamist militants fighting abroad in most countries. However, violent clashes
only occurred in Bosnia and Herzegovina [→ Bosnia and Herzegovina (Islamist militant groups)].
In Greece, the former violent conflict between right-wing militants, particularly the neo-fascist party Golden Dawn (GD), and
the government again de-escalated after a violent uprising in 2014 [→Greece (right-wing militants)]. On April 20, a trial
against all GD members of the 2012 election started in which the public prosecution mainly accused them of participating
in a criminal organization operating under the guise of a political party but also of murder and carrying out racist attacks.
Having said this, the conflict between several social groups and citizens, backed by left-wing militants, on one hand, and
the government, on the other, continued at a violent level. A salient issue was a protest staged by unions and workers to
demonstrate against austerity measures. While thousands of people demonstrated peacefully, a group of anarchists attacked
the police.
The two secession-conflicts on the British Isles, the violent crisis over the secession of Northern Ireland from the United
Kingdom and the non-violent conflict over the secession of Scotland [→ United Kingdom (Nationalists / Northern Ireland);
United Kingdom (SNP / Scotland)] continued. While in the former a political stalemate occured over the Stormont House
Agreement between the Loyalist and Republican parties, among them Sinn Féin, lasting until the parties struck an agreement
on November 17, the latter most notably gained attention in consideration of the upcoming referendum on the continuance
of Britain in the European Union. During the year, Scottish authorities let it be known, that in case of a ''Brexit, the Scottish
parliament will hold a new referendum on Scotland's independence.
What is more, the two secession-conflicts in Spain continued, the dispute over the secession of Catalonia from the Spanisch
Kingdom and the dispute over the secession of the Basque country [→ Spain (Catalan Nationalists / Catalonia; Spain (ETA,
PNV / Basque Provinces)]. In Catalonia, pro-independence parties signed a preliminary agreement on independence in which
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