ConflictBarometer_2015

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EUROPE In 2015, with a total of 62, the number of conflicts increased by one compared to 2014. As in the previous years, only one highly violent conflict was observed in Europe. Nevertheless, the number of violent conflicts increased by one to a total of 15. A violent crisis erupted in 2015 between opposition parties and the Kosovar government [→ Serbia (Kosovo - opposition)]. While the situation in the Donbas remained at the highest intensity level, last year's two limited wars, one between various opposition groups and the Ukrainian government and the other between Islamist militants and the Russian government in Northern Caucasus, de-escalated to the level of a violent crisis [→ Ukraine (Donbas); Ukraine (opposition); Russia (Islamist militants / Northern Caucasus)]. In total, a quarter of all conflicts in the region were violent. Whereas most of them were located in Ukraine, South Caucasus, and Western Balkan states, three violent conflicts took place in EU member states. Compared to other regions, Europe remained relatively calm with a share of nearly two thirds of the observed conflicts being non-violent. By that, Europe is the only region in 2015 where the number of non-violent conflicts exceeded the number of violent ones. Accounting for more than one third of all conflicts in the region, the majority of conflicts in Europe were disputes. The number of violent crises increased from eleven to 16 compared to last year. Most frequently, European conflicts concerned system/ideology (20), secession (15), and autonomy (13). The relatively new Ukrainian government under President Petro Poroschenko still had to face several inter- and intrastate conflicts [→ Russia - Ukraine; Ukraine (Crimea); Ukraine (Crimean Tatars); Ukraine (Donbas); Ukraine (opposition); Ukraine (right-wing militants)]. At least 4,327 fatalities and more than 985,000 refugees were counted in the conflict between the government supported by different groups, on the one side, and the Donetsk People's Republic as well as the Luhansk People's Republic on the other [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. Even though Minsk II negotiated between the participants of the Normandy format and aimed to ease the tension, the situation remained at war level throughout the year. Both conflict parties blamed each other for violating ceasefire, torturing, and committing war crimes. The conflict between the government and several opposition groups de-escalated from a limited war to a violent conflict with approx. 40 bomb and arson attacks counted in 2015 [→ Ukraine (opposition)]. In total, three out of six conflicts affecting Ukraine were violent. Furthermore, Ukraine played an important role in the conflict between the USA, EU, and several other states, on the one hand, and Russia on the other. While the Council of Europe extended the EU sanctions against Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol until 06/23/16, Russia announced an embargo on imports of agricultural products from the EU, US, Norway, Canada, and Australia as of 08/07/2015. The ongoing conflict between the Transnistrian regional government and the Moldovan government escalated to a violent conflict when guards of the de-facto Transnistrian border injured a Moldovan citizen on April 1 [→ Moldova (Transnistria)]. Even though the conflict remained predominantly non-violent, no signs of an effective conflict resolution were reported in 2015. For the first time since its beginning in 1989, the system/ideology and secession conflict between Islamist militants and the Russian government in the Northern Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) de-escalated to a violent crisis. However, the conflict still accounted for approx. 210 deaths. In the South Caucasus region, three violent crises were observed. The interstate conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory as well as the intrastate conflict between the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the central Azerbaijani government continued at a violent level and reached a new peak. At least 81 fatalities were counted in both conflicts [→ Armenia Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)]. In Armenia, countrywide mass protests over electricity tariffs resulted in clashes between protesters and riot police when the latter used batons and water cannon to disperse a sit-in strike in Yerevan [→ Armenia (opposition)]. In Georgia, the opposition conflict turned violent when supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition and the oppositional United National Movement clashed in Zugdidi, Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region [→ Georgia (opposition)]. In the Balkan region, especially the situation in Kosovo and neighboring FYROM remained tense. The promising development of the normalization process between Serbia and Kosovo was overshadowed by violent outbursts between opposition parties led by the self-determination movement Vetevendosje, on the one hand, and the Kosovar government on the other. In FYROM, violent clashes in early May between ethnic Albanian militants and the police in Kumanovo left 22 people dead, while continuous protests by the broad opposition movement against the government lead to early elections in January 2016 [→ FYROM (Albanian minority); FYROM (opposition)]. Throughout the Balkans, the threat of radical Islam remained visible, resulting in the conviction of several Islamist militants fighting abroad in most countries. However, violent clashes only occurred in Bosnia and Herzegovina [→ Bosnia and Herzegovina (Islamist militant groups)]. In Greece, the former violent conflict between right-wing militants, particularly the neo-fascist party Golden Dawn (GD), and the government again de-escalated after a violent uprising in 2014 [→Greece (right-wing militants)]. On April 20, a trial against all GD members of the 2012 election started in which the public prosecution mainly accused them of participating in a criminal organization operating under the guise of a political party but also of murder and carrying out racist attacks. Having said this, the conflict between several social groups and citizens, backed by left-wing militants, on one hand, and the government, on the other, continued at a violent level. A salient issue was a protest staged by unions and workers to demonstrate against austerity measures. While thousands of people demonstrated peacefully, a group of anarchists attacked the police. The two secession-conflicts on the British Isles, the violent crisis over the secession of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom and the non-violent conflict over the secession of Scotland [→ United Kingdom (Nationalists / Northern Ireland); United Kingdom (SNP / Scotland)] continued. While in the former a political stalemate occured over the Stormont House Agreement between the Loyalist and Republican parties, among them Sinn Féin, lasting until the parties struck an agreement on November 17, the latter most notably gained attention in consideration of the upcoming referendum on the continuance of Britain in the European Union. During the year, Scottish authorities let it be known, that in case of a ''Brexit, the Scottish parliament will hold a new referendum on Scotland's independence. What is more, the two secession-conflicts in Spain continued, the dispute over the secession of Catalonia from the Spanisch Kingdom and the dispute over the secession of the Basque country [→ Spain (Catalan Nationalists / Catalonia; Spain (ETA, PNV / Basque Provinces)]. In Catalonia, pro-independence parties signed a preliminary agreement on independence in which 42
EUROPE they envisaged the region's independence before April 2017. On June 21, several thousand Basques demonstrated in order to hold a referendum on Basque independence by forming human chains in several Basque cities. 43
Page 1 and 2: 2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 7 and 8: Methodology
Page 9 and 10: In addition to the three constituti
Page 11 and 12: Global Conflict Panorama
Page 13 and 14: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
Page 17 and 18: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
Page 19 and 20: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA COUPS D'É
Page 21 and 22: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
Page 23 and 24: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION adv
Page 25 and 26: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION rit
Page 27 and 28: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
Page 29 and 30: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Dur
Page 31 and 32: CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
Page 33 and 34: CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
Page 35 and 36: CONFLICT ISSUES between the House o
Page 37 and 38: CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought
Page 39 and 40: VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
Page 41 and 42: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
Page 43: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
Page 53 and 54: EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
Page 59 and 60: EUROPE In mid-July, the government
Page 61 and 62: Sub-Saharan Africa
Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
Page 65 and 66: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
Page 67 and 68: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
Page 69 and 70: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
Page 71 and 72: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA attacking Kayanz
Page 73 and 74: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
Page 75 and 76: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 300 people died,
Page 77 and 78: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to withdraw from
Page 79 and 80: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and 16 months, r
Page 81 and 82: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA latter signed th
Page 83 and 84: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
Page 85 and 86: NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
Page 87 and 88: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
Page 89 and 90: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
Page 91 and 92: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
Page 93 and 94: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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THE AMERICAS fices were carried out
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THE AMERICAS Zetas, in San Pedro Ga
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THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
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THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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THE AMERICAS Maduro accused paramil
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
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ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Minister Sheikh Ha
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ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Committees in Sers
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ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
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ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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ASIA AND OCEANIA with the governmen
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ASIA AND OCEANIA until 01/09/16. Th
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ASIA AND OCEANIA nation. The ROC go
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Additionally, Thol
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ASIA AND OCEANIA national power bet
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Group sent a speec
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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ASIA AND OCEANIA over the mine's re
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ASIA AND OCEANIA use of automatic g
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ASIA AND OCEANIA The conflict betwe
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni mili
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB AFGHANISTAN
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (MA
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB On November
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB state betwe
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB and the int
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB obstruct th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Syria. In t
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In February
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB September,
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Army (LNA),
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July - September October - December
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB of whom was
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB flights to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Al-Houthi m
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YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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ConflictBarometer_2015

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