ConflictBarometer_2015

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NATIONAL POWER CONFLICTS IN 2015 (NATIONAL LEVEL) INTENSITY 5 WAR 4 LIMITED WAR ___________________________________ VIOLENT 3 VIOLENT CRISIS NON-VIOLENT 2 NON-VIOLENT CRISIS 1 DISPUTE 0 NO CONFLICT
CONFLICT ISSUES between the House of Representatives and its internationally recognized government based in Tobruk and al-Bayda, on the one hand, and the Tripoli-based General National Congress, on the other, continued [→ Libya (opposition)]. The Syrian opposition conflict saw renewed attempts by the international community to put an end to the violence that claimed more than 50,000 fatalities in 2015 alone [→ Syria (opposition)]. On December 18, the UNSC unanimously adopted Resolution 2254 outlining a road map for a ceasefire and a peace process. The war between the al-Houthi militants, on the one hand, and the government of Yemen as well as a Saudi-led military coalition, on the other, transformed the entire conflict landscape in the Yemen [→ Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi)]. Numerous actors previously fighting the government of Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi turned against the al-Houthis. In other regions, national power played only a minor role in comparison to other items. In Europe, eleven out of 62 conflicts revolved around central government control, in the Americas five out of 53 conflicts, and in Asia and Oceania 19 out of 126. Besides being the two most common conflict issues 2015, the combination of claims of national power and seeking change to the political system was more frequent than any other combination of conflict items. In 63 cases, actors sought national power and a change to the political system at the same time. In five cases, actors also claimed control of natural resources. While four out of the five conflicts were located in Sub-Saharan Africa, one took place in Asia and Oceania [→ Cambodia (opposition)]. (tk) SECESSION The year 2015 saw 48 conflicts over secession, with four highly violent, 21 low-violent and 23 non-violent cases. Numbering 19, most of the secession conflicts took place in Asia and Oceania, followed by Europe with 15 cases. Asia and Oceania also showed the highest figure of violent secession conflicts, numbering 13. While in the Americas no violent conflict over secession was observed, the Middle East and Maghreb wittnessed five and Sub-Saharan Africa three. In 19 cases secession conflicts were combined with at least one more conflict issue. Most commonly, secession was combined with system/ideology or natural resources (10). Four of the 15 European conflicts over secession were fought violently in 2015, with the region's only war being observed in Ukraine. The war over the status of the Donbas region between several militant anti-government groups, supported by Russia, and the Ukrainian government, supported by Western countries, left at least 4,300 people dead, tens of thousands injured, and at least 985,000 people displaced by the end of the year [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. In Russia's Northern Caucasus region, the conflict over secession and system/ideology between Islamist militant groups fighting under the umbrella of the Caucasian Emirate (CE), on the one hand, and the central as well as regional governments, on the other, de-escalated to the level of a violent crisis [→ Russia (Islamist militants / Northern Caucasus)]. Although the number of CE attacks significantly decreased, over 200 people were killed in the conflict. The violent crisis over the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan continued [→ Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)]. The regional government of Nagorno-Karabakh held parliamentary elections, which, however, were not recognized by the government, the EU, NATO, and the OSCE. The conflict over the secession of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom saw renewed violent clashes in Belfast between Loyalists and the police [→ United Kingdom (Nationalists / Northern Ireland)]. Non-violent crises over secession could be observed in Cyprus, Georgia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Notably Russian Armed Forces conducted joint military exercises in the Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia [→ Georgia (Abkhazia); Georgia (South Ossetia)]. Secession disputes in Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Serbia, and Spain continued on the same level. Two of the 15 secession conflicts in Europe revolved around the issue of the orientation of the political system, while three cases included claims for natural resources. In Sub-Saharan Africa, eight conflicts were fought over a territory's secession from a state. Nigeria and Senegal both saw the escalation of conflicts to a violent level. In Nigeria, the Igbo-based Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra demanded an independent state of Biafra in the oil-rich Niger delta region since 1967 [→ Nigeria (MASSOB / Biafra)]. Since 1982, the Diola-based Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance demanded independence for Senegal's Casamance region [→ Senegal (MFDC / Casamance)]. The Oromo Liberation Front continued its violent struggle for the secession of the Oromiya region in Ethiopia [→ Ethiopia (OLF / Oromiya)]. The two conflicts over the secession of the Kenyan coast and the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar de-escalated to a non-violent level. Likewise, the conflict over the status of Angola's oil-rich enclave Cabinda de-escalated to a non-violent crisis despite the Front for Liberation of the Enclave Cabinda threatening to return to violent means after accusing the government of murdering one of its leaders [→ Angola (FLEC / Cabinda)]. Furthermore, no settlements were reached in the disputes between the self-declared government of Somaliland and the government of Somalia as well as in the Cameroon's Bakassi region [→ Somalia (Somaliland); Cameroon (militants / Bakassi)]. Only two conflicts saw the combination with other items: While the Uamsho movement in Tanzania's Zanzibar island demanded the change of the political system, in Angola, the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda sought the control of oil. Asia and Oceania witnessed 19 conflicts over secession, with 13 being fought on a violent level. While the total number of violent conflicts remained constant, two conflicts escalated to a violent level and two others turned non-violent [→ India (Sikhs); Philippines (MNLF)]; India (NLFT factions, ATTF / Tripura); Malaysia (Sulu Sultanate Supporters / Lahad Datu District)]. In two cases, secession conflicts were fought on a highly violent level. The conflict between BIFM and BIFF, on the one hand, and MILF and the government of the Philippines, on the other, escalated from a limited war to a war [→ Philippines (BIFM, BIFF MILF, government]. In Pakistan, Baloch nationalists and the government intensified their fighting to the level of a limited war [→ Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)]. The secession conflict between Uyghurs and the government de-escalated from a limited war to a violent crisis [→ China (Uyghurs / Xinjiang)]. Although the number of fatalities decreased in comparison to the previous year, violence was observed almost every month. In addition, the secession conflict in the Philippines between the MNLF and the government, lasting since 1969, turned violent in 2015 [→ Philippines (MNLF)]. In general, around half of the secession conflicts were combined with other strategic goals such as the orientation of the political system, resources, and subnational predominance. All five conflicts over secession in the Middle East and 33
Page 1 and 2: 2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 7 and 8: Methodology
Page 9 and 10: In addition to the three constituti
Page 11 and 12: Global Conflict Panorama
Page 13 and 14: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
Page 17 and 18: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
Page 19 and 20: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA COUPS D'É
Page 21 and 22: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
Page 23 and 24: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION adv
Page 25 and 26: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION rit
Page 27 and 28: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
Page 29 and 30: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Dur
Page 31 and 32: CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
Page 33: CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
Page 37 and 38: CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought
Page 39 and 40: VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
Page 41 and 42: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
Page 43 and 44: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
Page 45 and 46: EUROPE they envisaged the region's
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
Page 53 and 54: EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
Page 59 and 60: EUROPE In mid-July, the government
Page 61 and 62: Sub-Saharan Africa
Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
Page 65 and 66: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
Page 67 and 68: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
Page 69 and 70: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
Page 71 and 72: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA attacking Kayanz
Page 73 and 74: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
Page 75 and 76: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 300 people died,
Page 77 and 78: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to withdraw from
Page 79 and 80: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and 16 months, r
Page 81 and 82: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA latter signed th
Page 83 and 84: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
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NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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THE AMERICAS fices were carried out
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THE AMERICAS Zetas, in San Pedro Ga
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THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
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THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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THE AMERICAS Maduro accused paramil
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
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ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Minister Sheikh Ha
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ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Committees in Sers
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ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
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ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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ASIA AND OCEANIA with the governmen
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ASIA AND OCEANIA until 01/09/16. Th
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ASIA AND OCEANIA nation. The ROC go
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Additionally, Thol
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ASIA AND OCEANIA national power bet
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Group sent a speec
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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ASIA AND OCEANIA over the mine's re
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ASIA AND OCEANIA use of automatic g
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ASIA AND OCEANIA The conflict betwe
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni mili
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB AFGHANISTAN
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (MA
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB On November
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB state betwe
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB and the int
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB obstruct th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Syria. In t
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In February
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB September,
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Army (LNA),
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July - September October - December
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB of whom was
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB flights to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Al-Houthi m
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YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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