ConflictBarometer_2015

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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA HIGHLY VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 LIMITED WARS (24) WARS (19) SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Burundi (opposition) Burundi, DR Congo (FNL) Central African Republic, DR Congo, South Sudan, Uganda (LRA) DR Congo (Bantu – Batwa / Katanga) DR Congo (Ituri militias) DR Congo (Kata Katanga / Katanga) DR Congo (Mayi-Mayi et al.) DR Congo, Rwanda (FDLR) DR Congo, Uganda (ADF) Kenya (inter-ethnic violence) Mali (Islamist groups) Central African Republic (Anti-Balaka – ex-Séléka) Nigeria (farmers – pastoralists) Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger (Boko Haram) Somalia, Kenya (al-Shabaab) South Sudan (inter-communal violence) South Sudan (SPLM/A – in-Opposition) Sudan (Darfur) Sudan (inter-communual violence) Sudan (SPLM/A-North / Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile) MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula) Lebanon (Sunni militant groups) Libya (inter-tribal) Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al Sharia) Afghanistan (Taliban et al.) Syria, Iraq et al. (IS) Libya (opposition) Syria (opposition) Turkey (PKK) Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi) ASIA AND OCEANIA Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State) Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State) Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan) Philippines (MILF) Pakistan (Islamist militant groups) Philippines (BIFM, BIFF – MILF, government) THE AMERICAS Colombia (FARC) Colombia (inter-cartel violence, neo-paramilitary groups, left-wing militants) Colombia (neo-paramilitary groups, drug cartels) Mexico (inter-cartel violence, paramilitary groups) El Salvador (Maras) Mexico (drug cartels) EUROPE Ukraine (Donbas) 12
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA In 2015, the global number of political conflicts remained constant at 409, of which 223 were conducted on a violent level. The number of full-scale wars remained 19, while the number of limited wars decreased by one to 24. A total of 186 non-violent conflicts were counted, marking an increase by one compared to the previous year. The number of nonviolent crises increased by one to a total of 89, while the number of disputes remained constant at 97. WARS Compared to 2014, three conflicts escalated to war level. PKK and the Turkish government ended a two-year-long ceasefire, engaging in heavy fighting in the Eastern provinces of Turkey [→ Turkey (PKK)]. In the Philippines, fighting between BIFF, on the one hand, and the government and MILF, on the other, escalated to a full-scale war when the government launched a large-scale offensive against BIFF [→ Philippines (BIFM, BIFF – MILF, government)]. Fighting resulted in at least 250 deaths and tens of thousands of people displaced. Lastly, intercommunal violence over subnational predominance, cattle, and arable land in South Sudan escalated to a war in the context of the proliferation of weapons and increasing instability in the country [→ South Sudan (intercommunal violence)]. A total of 16 conflicts continued at war level. Nine wars were observed in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Sudan, the war in Darfur continued in its 14th consecutive year, SPLMA-North and the government engaged in heavy fighting and intercommunal fighting continued to cause significant numbers of casualties [→ Sudan (Darfur)]. In Somalia, al-Shabaab lost substantial parts of its previously controlled territory, especially in the South, due to the advances of AMISOM and the Somali National Army [→ Somalia, Kenya (al-Shabaab)]. In the Central African Republic, the first half of the year was marked by several rounds of negotiations between ex-Séléka groups, Anti-Balaka groups, and the in-terim government, while violence re-escalated in September after the killing of a Muslim moto driver [→ Central African Republic (Anti-Balaka – ex-Séléka)]. Around Lake Chad, Boko Haram extended its area of operation and changed its tactics from control of territory to hit-and-run attacks, increasingly abusing women and girls as suicide bombers [→ Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger (Boko Haram)]. At least 12,000 peo-ple were killed throughout the year and 2.4 million people remained displaced. Furthermore, pastoralists and farmers continued to fight over arable land and cattle in the Middle Belt [→ Nigeria (farmers – pastoralists)]. As desertification in the Sahelian Zone reduced fertile grounds, farmers appealed to their right to use their ancestor's farmland, while Fulani nomads claimed the territory as grazing areas for their cattle. The Middle East and Maghreb witnessed six wars. Several governments, supported by an international coalition, continued to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria, Iraq, and several other countries in the region. The network extended operations to Afghanistan, France, and Bangladesh, among others, and consolidated its control over areas in most states of the Maghreb. Due to a methodological revision, the conflict interactions directly related to IS were extracted from the conflicts Syria (opposition), Syria (inter-opposition violence), Syria (NC, Islamist groups – KSC / Kurdish regions), Iraq (IS et al.), Afghanistan (Taliban et al.), Algeria (AQIM et al.), Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula), Libya (opposition groups), Tunisia (AQIM et al.), Yemen (AQAP - al-Houthi rebels) to form one transnational conflict [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. 13 The death toll in the Syrian opposition conflict rose to approx. 250,000 since the beginning of the conflict in March 2011, with more than 50,000 fatalities in 2015 alone. As of December, at least 4.3 million people sought refuge in neighboring countries and 6.6 million were internally displaced. On December 18, the UNSC unanimously adopted Resolution 2254 outlining a road map for a ceasefire and a peace process. In terms of civilian fatalities, 2015 was the most fatal year in the war between the Taliban and the Afghan government since 2002 with at least 3,545 dead civilians by December 31 [→ Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)]. Another significant development in Afghanistan was the emergence of IS. Throughout the year, IS engaged in fighting with the Afghan National Army, NATO forces, and the Taliban mostly in Farah and Nangarhar provinces [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. The war between al-Houthis and the government of the Yemen continued with Saudi Arabia significantly extending its engagement in the Yemen [→ Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al- Houthi)]. The war in Libya continued with ongoing confrontations between the House of Representatives and its internationally recognized government based in Tobruk and al-Bayda, one the one hand, and the Tripoli-based General National Congress on the other [→ Libya (opposition)]. Despite their participation in UN-led peace talks, both parliaments remained internally split over the initiative to form a unity government while launching an inter-Libyan dialog and signing a declaration of principles on December 5. The war between Islamist groups and the Pakistani government left at least 3,000 people dead, with USoperated drone strikes killing at least 60 militants of various networks [→ Pakistan (Islamist militant groups)]. Constituting the Americas' sole full-scale war, the conflict between drug cartels and the Mexican government saw an increase in violence in Jalisco compared to the previous year [→ Mexico (drug cartels)]. After several attacks on police officers carried out by the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación the government launched ''Operation Jalisco", deploying 6,000 military forces to the state. Europe's sole highly violent conflict, namely the war in Ukraine over the control of the Donbas region between sepa-ratists and the government, continued with more than 4,000 fatalities in 2015 [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. Despite several rounds of talks to reach a ceasefire, violence continued. LIMITED WARS In 2015, seven conflicts escalated to a limited war, while two former wars de-escalated by one level. In Sub-Saharan Africa, eight limited wars were observed in the DR Congo. The fight between the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda and the government escalated to a highly violent level after the military and MONUSCO launched a large-scale offensive against the militants [→ DR Congo, Rwanda (FDLR)]. In contrast, violence related to the Allied Democratic Forces de-escalated to a limited war [→ DR Congo, Uganda (ADF)]. In Mali, various Islamist groups continued to fight the govern-ment [→ Mali (Islamist groups)]. While in 2014 the militants mostly launched attacks in remote northern areas, 2015 was marked by an extension of violence towards the south of the country. For the first time, Islamists conducted attacks along the borders with Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire as well as in the capital Bamako. The Burundian opposition conflict escalated to a limited war in the context of President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term in office [→ Burundi (opposition)].
Page 1 and 2: 2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 7 and 8: Methodology
Page 9 and 10: In addition to the three constituti
Page 11 and 12: Global Conflict Panorama
Page 13: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
Page 17 and 18: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
Page 19 and 20: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA COUPS D'É
Page 21 and 22: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
Page 23 and 24: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION adv
Page 25 and 26: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION rit
Page 27 and 28: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
Page 29 and 30: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Dur
Page 31 and 32: CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
Page 33 and 34: CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
Page 35 and 36: CONFLICT ISSUES between the House o
Page 37 and 38: CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought
Page 39 and 40: VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
Page 41 and 42: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
Page 43 and 44: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
Page 45 and 46: EUROPE they envisaged the region's
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
Page 53 and 54: EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
Page 59 and 60: EUROPE In mid-July, the government
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Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA attacking Kayanz
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 300 people died,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to withdraw from
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and 16 months, r
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA latter signed th
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
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NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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THE AMERICAS fices were carried out
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THE AMERICAS Zetas, in San Pedro Ga
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THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
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THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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THE AMERICAS Maduro accused paramil
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
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ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Minister Sheikh Ha
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ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Committees in Sers
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ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
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ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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ASIA AND OCEANIA with the governmen
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ASIA AND OCEANIA until 01/09/16. Th
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ASIA AND OCEANIA nation. The ROC go
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Additionally, Thol
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ASIA AND OCEANIA national power bet
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Group sent a speec
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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ASIA AND OCEANIA over the mine's re
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ASIA AND OCEANIA use of automatic g
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ASIA AND OCEANIA The conflict betwe
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni mili
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB AFGHANISTAN
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (MA
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB On November
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB state betwe
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB and the int
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB obstruct th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Syria. In t
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In February
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB September,
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Army (LNA),
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July - September October - December
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB of whom was
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB flights to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Al-Houthi m
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YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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