ConflictBarometer_2015

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Rwandan officials accused Nkurunziza of close links to the
Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an
armed group active in the DR Congo since its involvement
in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. According to Rwanda, FDLR
delivered arms to the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of Burundi's
ruling party. On May 13, Rwandan Foreign Minister
Louise Mushikiwabo warned that FDLR rebels had crossed
from DR Congo to Burundi stating that the group ''might even
get involved directly in the continued unrest.'' On November
8, Kagame accused Nkurunziza of perpetrating massacres
against the Burundian population.
Burundi accused Rwanda of seeking to destabilize the country
by enabling Burundian militants to launch cross-border
attacks and further of hosting General Godefroid Niyombare,
leader of the coup attempt on May 13. However, Rwandan
officials denied these allegations. Kayanza's governor
Canisius Ndayimanisha claimed that on July 10 around 500
armed fighters had entered the country from Rwanda and
engaged the military in shootouts, a charge denied by Kigali.
At the end of September, Burundi's Foreign Minister Alain
Nyamitwe accused Rwanda of recruiting rebels in Rwandan
refugee camps to fight Nkurunziza's government. He also
claimed that Rwanda had facilitated the coup plotters' actions
in Burundi. Kagame denied all allegations.
On October 18, Burundian police reportedly killed six arrested
Rwandans. 30 Rwandan citizens were arrested in
September. Following negotiations between Rwanda and
Burundi, 14 prisoners were released. Between April and October,
some 200 Rwandan citizens were arrested in Burundi.
As of December 14, more than 70,000 Burundians, among
them opposition politicians, had fled to Rwanda, particularly
to Kigali.
On December 22, Kagame announced that Rwanda would not
contribute troops to the planned AU peacekeeping mission
in Burundi. hlm, lmp
BURUNDI, DR CONGO (FNL)
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 2005
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
FNL-Rwasa, FNL-Nzabampema vs. Burundi,
DR Congo
national power, subnational predominance
The conflict over national power in Burundi and subnational
predominance between various factions of the National Liberation
Front (FNL), on the one hand, and the governments
of Burundi and the DR Congo, on the other, escalated to a
limited war. FNL remained split into various factions. One
wing, led by Jacques Bigirimana, was officially recognized as
a political party in Burundi and perceived as an ally of the
ruling party. In contrast, the party wing led by FNL's historical
leader Agathon Rwasa was opposed to the Burundian government.
In addition, at least one armed FNL splinter group,
led by Aloys Nzabampema, was active in Burundi and the
neighboring DR Congo, with its rear bases located in the latter's
South Kivu province. The Armed Forces of the DR Congo
(FARDC) was supported in its fight against FNL-Nzabampema
by MONUSCO.
In the night to 12/30/14, an up to 200-strong armed group
coming from South Kivu crossed the border into Burundi's
Cibitoke province. Burundian security forces intercepted
them. In at least five days of non-stop military operations
concentrated around Buganda, Cibitoke, about 100 of the
attackers, up to twelve soldiers, and two civilians were
killed, according to army sources. Human rights groups
claimed that captured rebels had been executed by the ruling
party's youth wing Imbonerakure. Thousands of civilians
fled. The army stated that it had ''wiped out'' the armed
group and seized a 60mm mortar, five rocket launchers,
and machine guns. The attacker's identity remained unclear.
Nzabampema's FNL denied any involvement. Following the
expiration of an ultimatum to lay down its arms, MONUSCO
and the FARDC launched an air and ground offensive called
''Kamilisha Usalama 2'' against FNL-Nzabampema bases in
Ruhoha locality, Uvira territory, South Kivu, on January 5.
According to FARDC, the seizing of the bases left 39 FNL-
Nzabampema fighters as well as eight FARDC soldiers dead
and four wounded. About 200 FNL fighters surrendered or
were captured. The operation continued until mid-March,
with several FNL-Nzabampema fighters being arrested across
Uvira. For the remainder of the year, only minor incidents
involving FNL-Nzabampema were reported from DR Congo.
For instance, in late July, 13 FNL-Nzabampema fighters armed
with AK-47 were captured in Rukoko together with four fighters
of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda [→
DR Congo (FDLR)].
In Burundi, Rwasa and his wing of the FNL party participated
in the general elections in June and July. Rwasa repeatedly
criticized President Pierre Nkurunziza's intention to run for
a third term, calling for a postponement and then a boycott
of the elections [→ Burundi (opposition)]. As Rwasa's wing
of the FNL was not recognized by the government, Minister
of the Interior Edouard Nduwimana forbade him to use
FNL insignia in his election campaign. In coalition named
Amizero y'Abarundi, Rwasa's FNL campaigned together with
the non-recognized Union for National Progress (UPRONA)
faction led by Charles Nditije. When the opposition mobilized
for demonstrations against Nkurunziza running for
a third term, Rwasa did not join the protests. Following
the parliamentary elections on June 29, in which Amizero
y'Abarundi gained 11.16 percent despite its boycott, Rwasa
called for an annulment of the results. Despite his criticism,
Rwasa ran for presidency, gaining 18.99 percent of the votes
on July 21. The following day, he declared his readiness to
join a government of national unity, as proposed by the East
African Community. The elected FNL members of Amizero
y'Abarundi took their seats in the National Assembly on July
27. With the votes of the ruling party CNDD-FDD, Rwasa was
elected the assembly's first deputy president.
FNL was repeatedly suspected of being behind violent attacks
in Burundi, while alleged FNL members were targeted
by security forces as well as the ruling party's youth wing
Imbonerakure. Rwasa's wife Annonciate Haberisoni was shot
and injured in Bujumbura on March 15. The UN condemned
the attack. Police repeatedly arrested FNL representatives
and raided homes of alleged FNL supporters. For instance,
the police arrested Augustine Burikukiye, a FNL-Rwasa representative,
in Cibitoke on June 27. A member of FNL-Rwasa
was shot dead, allegedly by Imbonerakure, in front of his
parent's house in Bujumbura on July 22. Hundreds attended
his funeral. FNL was also linked to grenade attacks and
armed assaults by unknown perpetrators in Burundi. For
instance, local media reported that a part of the fighters
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