ConflictBarometer_2015

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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In 2015, a total of 71 conflicts was observed in the Middle East and Maghreb, which marks a decrease by two compared to the last year. With ten highly violent conflicts, the region accounted for almost a quarter of all highly violent conflicts worldwide, while the region's six wars make up nearly a third of all wars. Compared to last year, the share of full-scale wars dropped due to a methodological optimization: The conflict interactions directly related to the so-called Islamic State (IS) were extracted from the conflicts Syria (opposition), Syria (inter-opposition violence), Syria (NC, Islamist groups KSC / Kurdish regions), Iraq (IS et al.), Afghanistan (Taliban et al.), Algeria (AQIM et al.), Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula), Libya (opposition groups), Tunisia (AQIM et al.), Yemen (AQAP - al-Houthi rebels) into one transnational conflict [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. System/ideology continued to be the conflict parties' most pursued item, with nearly two thirds of all conflicts focusing around it. In contrast, conflicts revolving around the items territory and international power tended to be less violent. Syria remained the country with the highest fatalities in all its conflicts combined. The war between the government of President Bashar al-Assad and various opposition groups was marked by a shift of momentum [→ Syria (opposition)]. While opposition groups were able to capture the complete Idlib Governorate in spring, there was a deadlock throughout the summer. With the start of the Russian intervention on September 30, pro-government forces made significant gains, especially in Aleppo and Homs Governorate. The violence between the opposition groups continued, especially Jabhat al-Nusra was involved in inter-opposition fighting [→ Syria (inter-opposition violence)]. The opposition conflict had also impact on two interstate conflicts, due to cross-border shelling [→ Syria Israel; Syria Turkey]. The conflict with the major impact on the conflict landscape in the Middle East and Maghreb was the conflict with the so-called Islamic State (IS) [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. Within its core in Syria and Iraq IS made significant territorial gains in the first half of the year capturing Ramadi, al-Anbar Governorate, Iraq and the ancient city Palmyra, Homs Governorate, Syria. But throughout the second half of the year losing territory to Kurdish groups in northern Syria and northern Iraq, as well as against the Iraqi army, supported by Shia militias, in central Iraq and al-Anbar. A US-led coalition targeted IS with airstrikes in both countries. In Iraq all other conflicts were non-violent, due to the focus on IS. Beside Syria and Iraq IS also intensified its operations in other countries throughout the region like Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey, or Yemen. Yemen continued to be one of the countries in the region most affected by highly violent conflicts. However, the structure of the conflicts in the country saw a significant change in 2015. Saudi Arabia, which until then supported the Yemeni government in its conflict with the al-Houthis, started a large military operation together with an Arab coalition after President Hadi had fled the country in March. Several other groups engaged in ongoing conflicts with the government joined forces loyal to President Hadi in their fight against the al-Houthi militants and their allies [→ Yemen (Marib tribes); Yemen (SMM / South Yemen)]. Among the latter were most notably members of the Special Security Forces and others loyal to former president Saleh. Militants from AQAP and Ansar al Sharia continued to fight both the government and al-Houthi forces, while IS especially targeted Shia mosques frequented by al-Houthi fighters. The war in Afghanistan between the Taliban and various other militant groups, on one side, and the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission (RSM) and US forces, on the other, continued. RSM was launched on January 1 as the ISAF mission formally ended on 31/12/14. In terms of civilian fatalities, 2015 was the most fatal year in Afghanistan since the beginning of the ISAF mission in 2002 with at least 3,545 dead civilians by December 31. Another significant development was the emergence of IS in Afghanistan. Throughout the year, IS engaged in fighting with the Afghan National Army, NATO forces, and the Taliban mostly in Farah and Nangarhar provinces. The IS militants often proved to be former Taliban fighters and tried to establish several regional strongholds, but were regularly pushed back by the Taliban. In Turkey, the conflict between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the government escalated to a war. On July 22, PKK militants killed two soldiers in Ceylanpinar, Sanliurfa province. From July 24 onwards, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out airstrikes and ground operations against PKK targets in the southeast, especially in Diyarbakir in the eponymous province. By the end of the year, at least 2,057 were killed and over 100,000 internally displaced as a result of the fighting between PKK and the government. The conflict was exacerbated by several IS attacks in Turkey, most notably the Ankara bombings on October 10 when IS suicide bombers killed at least 102 civilians and wounded more than 400. In late August, Turkey actively joined the US-led anti-IS coalition and started to carry out airstrikes against IS targets in Syria. In Israel, two conflicts were carried out regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state with major conflict action located in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, respectively [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian territories); Israel (PNA / Palestinian territories)]. The conflict between Hamas, PRC, PIJ, and others against the government focused on the Gaza Strip and de-escalated from a war to a violent crisis [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian territories)]. The de-escalation followed the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas reached on 08/26/14 and led to a significant decline in fatality numbers. Violent incidents in the West Bank in 2015 mostly concerned rockets fired from the Strip towards Israel and prompting Israeli airstrikes in return. Violence was also carried out by both sides during demonstrations in the proximity of the border fence between the Palestinian territories and Israel. In the West Bank, conflict conduct mostly focused on the violent crisis between the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and the government [→ Israel (PNA / Palestinian territories)]. While the PNA accepted the Jurisdiction of ICC in January, the remainder of the year was marked by stabbing attacks carried out by Palestinian civilians against Israeli civilians and security personnel. In July, Israeli settlers killed three Palestinians in an arson attack in the village of Duma. Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces were especially frequent around the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. Furthermore, the conflicts between Hamas and Salafi groups in the Gaza Strip escalated to a violent crisis, while the conflict between Israel and Shiite militia Hezbollah escalated to a limited war. In Lebanon, a limited war was conducted between Sunni militant groups, most notably al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front, on the one hand, and the government and Shiite militia Hezbollah on the other [→ Lebanon (Sunni militant groups)]. The conflict was heavily affected by the Syrian civil war and the conflict with IS and mainly took place around the cities of Arsal, Baalbek, and Ras Baalbek in Beqaa governorate, where IS tried to establish a bridgehead. In Egypt, the conflict between Ajnad al-Misr and other militant Islamist groups against the government constituted a limited war and was mainly conducted on the Sinai Peninsula [→ Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula]. Here, as in the case of Lebanon, an existing conflict involving Islamist militants was heavily influenced by the conflict regarding IS [→ Lebanon 164
MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni militant groups)]. After the Islamist militant group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis had pledged allegiance to IS on 11/10/14 and subsequently changed its name to Wilayat Sinai (''Sinai Province'') it was merged into the IS conflict. The remaining confrontations between the government and Islamist militant groups nevertheless constituted a limited war and left at least 292 people killed and 103 wounded, most of whom being security personnel or militants. The confrontations were characterized by clashes around the towns of Sheikh Zuwaid and Arish in North Sinai as well as attacks with explosives throughout the country. The opposition conflicts in Algeria and Tunisia continued at a violent level. While Algerian opposition groups mainly demanded the government to stop its shale gas extraction projects in the southern province of Tamanrasset, the Tunisian conflict was marked by various socioeconomic protests. In both countries, demonstrations and police interventions turned violent several times [→ Algeria (opposition); Tunisia (opposition)]. Furthermore, AQIM and affiliated militant groups continued their activities in most North African countries, most notably in Algeria and Tunisia, where they respectively carried out several attacks on police and army personnel over the course of the year [→ Algeria (AQIM et al.), Tunisia (AQIM et al.), Mauritania (AQIM), Morocco (AQIM). Several former AQIM-loyal fighters in Algeria and Tunisia pledged allegiance to IS. Newly formed IS group Jund al-Khilafa in Tunisia carried out the most prominent attacks in the area, namely on the Bardo Museum as well as a presidential guard bus in the Tunisian capital Tunis and on a hotel in Sousse. In the Libyan opposition conflict, ongoing confrontations between the two rival parliaments, the House of Representatives and its internationally recognized government based in Tobruk and al-Bayda, one the one hand, and Tripoli-based General National Congress, on the other, with their respective loyal as well as affiliated forces, constituted a war [→Libya (opposition)]. Fighting took place in northern and central Libya between various groups belonging to, loyal to, or affiliated to one of the conflict parties. Despite their participation in UN-led peace talks, both parliaments remained internally split over the initiative to form a unity government while initiating a Libyan-Libyan Dialog and signing a declaration of principles on December 5. IS activity in Libya was mostly observed in the areas of Sirte, Benghazi, and Derna. The group expanded its control of the town of Sirte where confrontations with Libya Dawn intensified. Over the course of the year, IS repeatedly fought against forces belonging to or siding with the internationally recognized government in Benghazi and extended its influence over the town. IS clashed with forces loyal to the internationally recognized government as well as with the GNC-backing Derna Mujahideen Shura Council (DMSC) in Derna, which was largely under IS control since the end of 2014, and the eponymous district. In June and July, DMSC launched several offensives driving IS out of the town. 165
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2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
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CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
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AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
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Methodology
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In addition to the three constituti
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Global Conflict Panorama
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA COUPS D'É
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION adv
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION rit
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Dur
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CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
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CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
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CONFLICT ISSUES between the House o
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CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought
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VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
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NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
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EUROPE they envisaged the region's
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EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
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EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
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EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
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EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
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EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
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EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
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EUROPE In mid-July, the government
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Sub-Saharan Africa
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA attacking Kayanz
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 300 people died,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to withdraw from
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and 16 months, r
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA latter signed th
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
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NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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Page 119 and 120: THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
Page 121 and 122: THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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Page 125 and 126: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
Page 127 and 128: ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
Page 129 and 130: ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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Page 135 and 136: ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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Page 139 and 140: ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
Page 141 and 142: ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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Page 157 and 158: ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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Page 165: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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Page 199 and 200: YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
Page 201 and 202: IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
Page 203: Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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ConflictBarometer_2015

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