ASIA AND OCEANIA With 126 active conflicts in total, Asia and Oceania continued to be the region with the highest number of conflicts in <strong>2015</strong>, accounting for more than a quarter of the total worldwide. While more than 90 percent of the conflicts were carried out low-violently (63) or non-violently (57), the region continued to face six highly violent conflicts evenly distributed among Myanmar, the Philippines, and Pakistan. While Pakistan's intrastate war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) and other Islamist militant groups continued unabatedly for the ninth consecutive year, a war over secession escalated on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao [→ Pakistan (Islamist militant groups); Philippines (BIFF, BIFM - MILF, government)]. With the de-escalation of highly violent intrastate conflicts in China and India as well as the Indo-Pakistani conflict, the overall number of limited wars decreased from five to four. In Myanmar, highly violent tensions erupted between the government and militant groups in the Kokang region, constituting the country's second limited war besides its protracted conflict with the Kachin Independence Army [→ China (Uyghurs / Xinjiang); India (inter-ethnic violence / Assam); Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State); Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin state)]. Both Pakistan and the Philippines saw one violent crisis escalating to a limited war [→ Pakistan (Balochistan); Philippines (MILF)]. Asia and Oceania again was the region with the highest number of interstate conflicts, including three violent and eight non-violent crises. Most prevalent conflict issues were related to territory (14) and international power (11). As in previous years, the density of interstate crises between China and its neighbors in the East and South China Sea was particularly high. On the Korean Peninsula, the situation escalated after South Korean soldiers had been wounded in several landmine explosions. Nine of the 14 observed conflicts in China were conducted violently. The highly violent conflict between the Uyghurs, on the one hand, and the government as well as Han Chinese, on the other, de-escalated but remained violent [→ China (Uyghurs / Xinjiang)]. Although casualties decreased in total, violence was carried out almost every month, also involving other countries such as Thailand and Turkey. With the adoption of the National Security Law in July, the Chinese government strengthened its combat against alleged separatists and terrorists in the border regions. Additionally, dozens of civil rights activists and dissidents were reportedly arrested in July. In the first half of the year, heavy fighting between government forces and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army left at least 750 people dead, 450 injured, and tens of thousands internally displaced in Shan State, reviving a Burmese conflict which had remained quiet for several years [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State)]. Following almost two years of negotiations between the government and ethnic armed groups, a nationwide ceasefire in Myanmar was agreed upon by the signatories on October 15. However, not all armed groups agreed with the ceasefire, among them was the largest one, the United Wa State Army. Some of the non-signatories met for talks about their future involvement and contributions to national politics. However, fighting erupted anew in their controlled territory [→ Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State)]. On November 8, opposition party National League for Democracy won the general elections with an absolute majority [→ Myanmar (opposition)]. In the Philippines, the conflict between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) showed mixed developments. Despite one violent incident claiming the lives of over 50 people, civil and military cooperation as well as joint infrastructural development flourished [→ Philippines (MILF)]. This year, the conflict between government forces and MILF fighters, on the one hand, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, on the other, escalated to a war [Philippines (BIFM, BIFF MILF, government)]. In Indonesia, the government conducted large-scale security operations on the island of Sulawesi and mobilized about 150,000 security personnel throughout the country in response to threats by IS-affiliated militants [→ Indonesia (Islamist militant groups)]. The country also saw an increase of subnational, religious violence [→ Indonesia (Muslims Hindus)], which diffused to the provinces of Aceh and Papua, sites of long-standing secession conflicts [→ Indonesia (Aceh); Indonesia (Papua)]. In the eastern part of South Asia, an increase of low-intensity violence was observed. Seven conflicts escalated to a violent level, four of them being located in Nepal. Following an earthquake in April, leaving over 8,800 people dead, the major parties agreed upon a new constitution after years of deadlock. However, the future demarcation of provinces and the question of secularism sparked violent protests countrywide. The ethnic Madhesis blocked the border to India, causing a severe shortage of fuel and medicine [→ Nepal (Madhesis, Tharus / Terai)]. Similarly, right-wing Hindu groups staged violent protests demanding the declaration of Nepal as a Hindu state [→ Nepal (right-wing Hindu groups)]. Additionally, Maldivian opposition supporters engaged in violent clashes with security forces after the arrest and conviction of former president and opposition leader Mohammed Nasheed [→ Maldives (opposition)]. Furthermore, the situation in Bangladesh aggravated. The tensions between the ruling Awami League and the oppositional Bangladesh Nationalist Party cumulated in a months-long road blockade in the first half of the year, during which reportedly over 100 people were killed and up to 14,000 arrested [→ Bangladesh (opposition)]. Throughout the year, the government continued the prosecution and execution of opposition leaders. Meanwhile, Islamist violence increased, mainly targeting secular bloggers, Hindus, Shiites, and non-Muslim foreigners [→ Bangladesh (Islamist groups)]. Various militant groups in northeastern India continued their violent struggle for secession. Tensions in the region intensified after the Khaplang-led faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) had ended its ceasefire with the Indian government and nine armed groups from Assam, Manipur, and after Nagaland had declared to launch a comprehensive umbrella organization called the United Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFW) [→ India (Manipur); India (NSCN factions et al. / Nagaland); India (ULFA-I et al. / Assam)]. The demand by radical Sikh groups for an independent state of Khalistan regained momentum in the northern states of Punjab and Kashmir, with pro-Khalistan Sikhs also alienating more moderate Sikh groups [→ India (Sikhs)]. In Gujarat state, the Patel community magnified its demand for socioeconomic benefits under the socioeconomic reservation system [→ India (Patels et al)]. Communal violence over the consumption of beef was reported throughout the year in Maharashtra and Haryana [→ India (Hindus Muslims)]. Contrastingly, in Sri Lanka, the conflict between Sinhalese nationalists and Buddhists, on the one hand, and Muslims and Christians, on the other, de-escalated after the election of President Maithripala Sirisena in January. To combat terrorism in Pakistan, the government set up military courts to pass faster judgements in terrorism-related cases and targeted financial and media resources of militant groups. Moreover, executions continued throughout the year. In another effort to bring about regional stability, hundreds of suspected Baloch militants were granted amnesty by the 124
ASIA AND OCEANIA central government as part of the Peaceful Balochistan Plan. However, violence continued countrywide with the Federally Administered Tribal Regions being most severely affected. After several groups had split off from TTP the previous year, it strengthened its rank and file in <strong>2015</strong> with some groups renewing their alliance with TTP this year [→ Pakistan (inter-Islamist rivalry)]. Even though cross-border skirmishes between Pakistan and India continued in <strong>2015</strong>, diplomatic steps were undertaken to ease tensions [→ Pakistan India]. In Central Asia, elections took place in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Even though no instances of violence were reported, especially the presidential election in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan lacked democratic standards such as a credible electoral alternative [→ Kazakhstan (opposition); Uzbekistan (opposition)]. In particular, the situation in Tajikistan turned increasingly tense when several high-ranking military officers and officials defected to militant Islamist groups and engaged in violent clashes with the government [→ Tajikistan (Islamist militant groups)]. Outrage was caused by the ban of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, formerly being the only legal religious party in Central Asia, which was also classified as an extremist and terrorist organization by the Tajik Supreme Court in September [→ Tajikistan (opposition)]. 125
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CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
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AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
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Methodology
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In addition to the three constituti
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Global Conflict Panorama
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION rit
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
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CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
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CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
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CONFLICT ISSUES between the House o
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CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought
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VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
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NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
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EUROPE they envisaged the region's
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EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
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EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
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EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
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EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
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EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
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EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
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EUROPE In mid-July, the government
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Sub-Saharan Africa
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA attacking Kayanz
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
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