ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
by Moldovan companies.
On November 16 and 17, Bogojevic held talks with Moldovan
Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Osipov and the new Transnistrian
de facto foreign minister Vitaly Ignatyev. They identified
the main obstacles for bilateral relations, such as the
Moldovan and Ukrainian joint customs control at the border
with Transnistria and the criminal prosecution of Transnistrian
officials. Furthermore, Osipov claimed that the laying
of preconditions for talks by the Transnistrian side violated
earlier agreements. As a reaction to elections in Transnistria
on November 29, Moldovan Defense Minister Anatol Salaru
announced not to recognize the election. Moldova asked foreign
embassies located in Chisinau to restrain from sending
representatives to the elections.
On December 4, Foreign Minister of Moldova Natalia Gherman
demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria
and, instead, to transform it into a civilian mission with an
international mandate.
Allegedly, Transnistria would receive USD 1.8 million as financial
aid by Russia until January 2016. On December 18,
the EU-Moldova Association Council decided to extend the
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area to the whole area
of Moldova including Transnistria by 2016. tka
RUSSIA (ISLAMIST MILITANTS / NORTHERN
CAUCASUS)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1989
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
CE vs. government
secession, system/ideology
The conflict over ideology and secession between Islamist
militant groups fighting under the umbrella of the Caucasian
Emirate (CE), on the one hand, and the central as well as
regional governments, on the other, de-escalated to the level
of a violent crisis. The CE aimed at establishing an independent
Islamic Emirate under Sharia law in the North Caucasus
Federal District (NCFD) comprising the republics of Dagestan
(RoD), Chechnya (RoC), Ingushetia (RoI), Kabardino-Balkaria
(RoKB), Karachay-Cherkessia (RoKC), and North Ossetia Alania
(RoNOA), as well as the region Stavropol Krai (SK).
The number of violent incidents sharply declined compared
to 2014. However, at least 210 people, among them 18
officials and 19 civilians, were killed and 49 people were
injured. State officials reported to have killed more than 185
militants, including 36 leaders.
Bombings, assassinations, and attacks on security forces as
well as civilians frequently took place in DoG and RoKB, while
the number of fatalities decreased significantly in RoC and
RoI. In RoKC, RoNOA, and SK only a few violent incidents were
reported.
Throughout the year, militants conducted at least nine bombings
and 37 attacks on police officers and military servicemen.
On April 19, government troops killed CE leader Aliaskhab
Kebekov alias Abu Mukhammad al-Dagestani in a special operation
raid in the village of Gerei-Avlak, Buynaksk district
in RoD. He was considered the successor of Dokku Umarov,
who had been killed in 2013. Kebekov was succeeded by
Magomed Suleimanov alias Muhammad Abu Usman. On August
10, Suleimanov and four other militants were killed in
a clash with special forces near the village of Gimry in the
Untsukul District of DoG.
As in previous years, RoD remained the most violent region
with approx. 128 deaths, including those of nine government
officials. For instance, on August 24, special forces killed
Abdul Kurbanov, leader of the Makhachkala militant group,
and two other militants in a shootout in Novy Khuseht in the
city district of Makhachkala. One soldier was wounded in the
fire exchange.
In Kabardino-Balkaria, violent incidents occurred almost every
month. For instance, on November 11, government forces
killed Robert Zankishiev alias Amir Abdullah, the so-called
emir of the jamaat of Kabarda, Balkaria, and Karachay when
they stormed a private house in Nalchik.
In comparison to last year, violent incidents decreased significantly
in RoC. On January 1, government forces killed
two militants, including the self-declared emir of the Western
sector of the Chechen welayat in a special operation in
Mekenskaya, Naur District. Four soldiers were injured. On
February 28, a bomb explosion killed one and injured four
other soldiers in the village of Shalazi, Urus-Martan District.
In Ingushetia, violence accounted for at least 17 deaths.
Special units killed eight militants, including Adam Tagilov,
leader of the western sector of Ingushetia, on August 1. Tagilov
had been involved in organizing a major attack in the
Chechen capital Grozny in December 2014. On October 31,
special forces killed Ingush jamaat leader Beslan Makhauri
alias Amir Muhammad and another militant in Nazran when
they opened fire on the authorities during their detention.
Between November 2014 and June 2015, the so-called emirs
of Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Chechnya, and Ingushetia
had sworn allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) [→
Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. On June 24, IS spokesman Abu Muhammad
al-Adnani announced that IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
had accepted the pledge of allegiance sworn by most jamaat
leaders of the NCFD and proclaimed to establish an
IS province in the North Caucasus under the leadership of
Rustam Asilderov alias Abu Muhammad al-Qadari.
According to the Russian Federal Security Service, an estimated
3,000 ethnic Russians and natives of the NCFD left
Russia to fight in Syria and Iraq on the side of IS. okl
RUSSIA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 2001
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
POP, PARNAS, Yabloko, Democratic
Choice, December 5th Party, Libertarian
Party, Citizen initiative, opposition
movements vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The non-violent conflict over national power and the orientation
of the political system between various opposition
groups, such as the Party of Progress (POP), People's Freedom
Party (Parnas), and Yabloko Party, as well as different opposition
movements, on the one hand, and the government of
President Vladimir Putin, on the other, continued.
Throughout the year, the opposition as well as progovernment
groups organized protest campaigns and rallies.
On February 21, the pro-government Anti-Maidan movement
organized a march with 35,000 participants close to the Red
Square in the capital Moscow to condemn the protests in Kiev,
Ukraine, the previous year [→ Ukraine (opposition)]. Several
other pro-government groups, such as the National Liberation
Movement and the Night Wolves, took part in the rally. In the
night of February 27 to 28, opposition leader Boris Nemtsov
was killed in a drive-by shooting at the Bolshoy Moskvoretsky
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