ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
On August 24, state leaders of Ukraine, France, and Germany
met in Berlin without the attendance of Putin. In early December
during a visit to Ukraine, Vice President of the USA
Joe Biden assured support to Ukraine and accused Russia of
violating Minsk II. On December 22, militant anti-government
groups and the government of Ukraine agreed on a new
ceasefire deal during the holidays. Furthermore, on December
30, Normandy Four agreed to extend the validity of Minsk
II to 2016. mbar lmv
UKRAINE (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2013
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Opposition Bloc, KPU, opposition
groups et al. vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The conflict over national power and the orientation of the
political and socioeconomic system between the Opposition
Bloc, the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU), and various opposition
groups, on the one hand, and the government of
President Petro Poroshenko, on the other hand, de-escalated
to a violent crisis.
Throughout the year, militants conducted approx. 40 bomb
and arson attacks, especially in the oblasts of Dnipropetrovsk,
Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa, leaving several people dead or
injured. Attacks mostly targeted offices of government parties,
army recruitment bureaus, headquarters of the Security
Service of Ukraine (SBU), institutions and meeting venues of
pro-government volunteer organizations and NGOs. Furthermore,
militants attacked banks, railroad tracks, supply lines,
billboards, and Russian newspaper offices. Most incidents remained
unsolved, with no one claiming responsibility. While
governmental representatives repeatedly blamed Russia or
so-called pro-Russian groups for having conducted the attacks,
the opposition blamed the government for carrying out
a false-flag strategy. For instance, on February 22, a bomb attack
took place in the city of Kharkiv during a pro-government
rally marking the first anniversary of the so-called Maidan
Revolution. Four people were killed, among them two police
officers, and ten were injured. SBU arrested four suspects
claimed to be instructed and trained in Russia. In reaction
to the attacks, on June 16, President Poroshenko signed a
law enabling the National Security and Defense Council of
Ukraine (NSDC) to increase the number of police forces in
the country. Additionally, the NSDC launched a crackdown on
so-called terrorists in the following weeks. However, further
incidents took place. For instance on September 27, the local
anti-government paramilitary group Odesskoe Podpolye carried
out a bomb attack in the city of Odessa, damaging the
regional SBU headquarters as well as several nearby buildings
and vehicles.
In the course of the year, the government pursued judicial
and executive action against oppositional groups, media, and
parties as well as supporters of the ousted government of
then-president Viktor Yanukovych and so-called pro-Russian
activists. On May 15, Poroshenko signed four laws banning
symbols deemed to be totalitarian, especially those of Soviet
and Communist origin, and recognized right-wing WWII nationalist
groups as independence fighters. On September 30,
the District Administrative Court of Kyiv banned a KPU splinter
group and the Communist Party of Workers and Peasants,
as well as the KPU itself on December 16.
Furthermore, the government enforced measures against oppositional
and Russian media. On January 1, NSDC Secretary
Oleksandr Turchynov threatened to shut down the TV station
Inter after it had broadcasted a Russian New Year's show.
On February 7, SBU detained journalist Ruslan Kotsaba on
charges of high treason in Ivano-Frankivsk, in the eponymous
oblast, after he had called for a boycott of military
recruitment and deployment in the country's east [→ Ukraine
(Donbas)]. On September 16, authorities imposed sanctions
against 388 people, among them many Russian journalists
and over 100 companies from 23 countries, accusing them
of anti-Ukrainian propaganda and connections to terrorism.
International academics, the Council of Europe (CoE), OSCE,
and international watchdogs repeatedly denounced these
acts as being politically motivated and a threat to freedom
of speech. They further criticized the government for not
protecting opposition politicians and journalists from attacks
by right-wing militants. For instance, on April 16, OSCE called
on the government to immediately investigate and ensure
journalist's safety after presumed right-wing militants had
killed opposition-near journalist Oles Buzyna in the capital
Kyiv that day [→ Ukraine (right-wing militants)]. In total,
twelve oppositional and pro-Russian activists were killed by
the end of the year.
While Poroshenko condemned the killings and urged law
enforcement agencies to investigate the circumstances, the
opposition as well as the Russian foreign ministry accused
the government of repression. By the end of the year, the
majority of incidents remained unsolved.
On October 25, Opposition Bloc politicians criticized the
government's postponement of the elections in Mariupol,
Donetsk oblast. Poroshenko accused the Opposition Bloc
and the benefactor, businessman Rinat Akhmetov, of electoral
fraud, while the opposition and several members of the
former Yanukovych government accused the government of
distorting the election process. However, OSCE commended
transparency and organization of the elections.
Concerning the 2014 Maidan killings, the 2014 Odessa
clashes, and the overthrow of the Yanukovych government,
international watchdogs repeatedly accused the government
and national law enforcement agencies of impeding the investigations.
For instance on March 31, CoE blamed the
government for failing the investigations due to a lack of independence
of the General Prosecution and the destruction
of evidence. On October 19, Yanukovych filed a case at the
European Court of Human Rights against the government for
missing a legal impeachment trail and repeated breaches of
his rights. tfr
UKRAINE (RIGHT-WING MILITANTS)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2014
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Svoboda, Right Sector, Radical Party,
right-wing militants vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The violent crisis over national power, the orientation of the
political system, and ideology between right-wing parties
such as Svoboda and Radical Party, military-political groups
such as the Right Sector and its armed unit Ukrainian Volunteer
Corps, and other smaller right-wing groups, on the one
side, and the government, on the other, continued.
During July and August, five people died in clashes between
Right Sector militants and the police in Uzhhorod, Zakarpattia
oblast, and the capital Kyiv.
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