ConflictBarometer_2015

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
On November 2, IRGC arrested at least three oppositional
journalists in Tehran, accusing them of belonging to an infiltration
group connected to the USA and the United Kingdom.
According to Reporters Without Borders, by the end of the
year a total of 37 journalists were in detention. On March
3, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon criticized the Iranian
government for repeated human rights violations in a report
to the UNHRC. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif rejected those claims referring to double
standards and politicization of those issues. jko
IRAN (PJAK / KURDISH AREAS)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1979
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
PJAK vs. government
autonomy
The conflict over autonomy in Iran's Kurdish areas between
the Party of Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) and the government
escalated to a violent crisis.
While PJAK's armed wing, the East Kurdistan Defense Units
(YRK), and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) repeatedly
clashed in August, combats receded in the following
months.Throughout the year, the government executed several
Kurds allegedly linked to PJAK. On February 20, the brothers
Ali and Habib Afshari, two alleged PJAK members, were
hanged in the Orumiyeh prison, West Azerbaijan province,
for ''spreading corruption on earth'' and ''acting against God's
will.'' Kurdish political activist Sirwan Nejawi was executed on
August 9 in the Tabriz prison, East Azerbaijan, on charges of
collaboration with PJAK. In response to the execution, YRK attacked
military barracks near the city of Sanandaj, Kordestan
province, on August 12. While the government reported that
five soldiers died in the fighting, the Kurdish group claimed
having killed twelve. eth
IRAN USA, EU (NUCLEAR PROGRAM)
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 2002
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Iran vs. USA, EU
international power, other
The non-violent crisis over international power and Iran's
nuclear program between the USA and the EU, on the one
hand, and Iran, on the other, continued.
On April 2, Iran and the P5+1/E3+3 group consisting of the
US, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany
agreed on the key points of a Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (JCPOA) related to Iran's nuclear capabilities, for
instance nuclear enrichment facilities, international inspections,
and transparency standards. Furthermore, it stated
that the EU and the US would lift sanctions after inspections
by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed
Iran's compliance with JCPOA. However, US sanctions imposed
after the 1979 Iranian Revolution remained in place
[→ Iran USA]. On July 14, the P5+1/E3+3 group reached
a final agreement with Iran over its nuclear program, calling
it JCPOA. It was announced by EU High Representative
for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna. The final agreement
was based on the Joint Plan of Action of 11/24/13, in
which Iran had made major technical concessions regarding
the function of its civilian nuclear program in exchange for
moderate sanctions relief, and on the framework agreement
from April.The deal demanded Iran to reduce its stockpile of
low-enriched uranium, to redesign and transform the nuclear
facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Arak, as well as to grant the
IAEA access to facilities for enrichment, centrifuge production,
and storage throughout the country. In return, if Iran
complied with those requirements, the arms embargo would
be lifted for conventional weapons after five and for ballistic
missiles after eight years. Furthermore, sanctions concerning
financial restrictions and energy could be lifted in early 2016.
A large number of restrictions imposed by JCPOA, however,
will be lifted after a period of 15 years. On December 2,
the IAEA issued a final report on the Iranian nuclear program.
It stated that after 2009, there was no evidence for
activities concerning the development of nuclear weapons.
In response, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi
claimed that the Iranian nuclear program only had peaceful
aims, denying any research related to the development of nuclear
weapons. By the end of the year, all sanctions imposed
on Iran remained in place. krk
IRAQ (SHIITE MILITANT GROUPS)
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 2004
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Al-Mukhtar Army, Asaib Ahl al-Haqq,
Mahdi Army, Shiite militias vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The conflict over system and ideology as well as national
power between Shiite militant groups such as al-Mukhtar
Army, Asaib Ahl al-Haqq, Hashid al-Shaabi, Harakat al-Nujaba,
and Mahdi Army, on the one hand, and the government, on
the other, de-escalated to a non-violent crisis.
After the Islamic State (IS) had launched its offensive beginning
in June 2014, the government turned to Shiite militias to
bolster their security forces. The militias, backed by Iran, were
essential for strengthening Iraqi forces and helped to retake
areas in Iraq. In January, the government started to form
three brigades of Shiite militias in the Kirkuk Governorate
under the directive of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Since
then, IS frequently targeted Shiite areas across the country.
The US Department of Defense stated that it would support
operations involving both the Iraqi army and those militia
forces operating under command and control of the Iraqi
government. Shiite militias mobilized to help the army to
fight IS gained more military and political influence [→ Syria,
Iraq et al. (IS)].
Shiite militias reportedly singled out and killed 72 people on
January 26 in the Barwana area in Muqdadiyya, a predominantly
Sunni region in Diyala Governorate. Local residents
remained apprehensive about returning to their homes for
fear of the armed militia groups, which allegedly operated
outside governmental control and was accused of resorting
to vigilante justice by Sunnis. Shiite militias reportedly
destroyed civilian buildings in the aftermath of the retake
of Tikrit, Salah ad-Din Governorate, in March and April. On
June 17, Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of Mahdi Army, warned
the group's primary target would become US troops if they
were redeployed to Iraq, expressing their distrust of American
forces since the 2003 US-led invasion.
The head of Asaib Ahl al-Haqq confessed to the kidnapping
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