ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
ARMENIA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2003
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
ANC, ARC, Heritage, PAP, opposition
movements vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The conflict over national power and the orientation of the
political system between opposition parties, such as the Armenian
National Congress (ANC), Prosperous Armenia (PAP),
and Heritage, as well as different opposition movements, on
the one hand, and the government of President Serge Sarkisian,
on the other, escalated to a violent crisis.
Throughout the year, opposition parties organized rallies
against a planned constitutional reform transforming the
country's political system into a parliamentary republic. Furthermore,
mass protests against electricity tariffs were staged
countrywide from May 27 onwards.
Following the temporary abduction and beating of prominent
PAP member Artak Khachatyan by three unknown attackers
on February 7, hundreds of PAP supporters rallied in the
capital Yerevan two days later, calling Khachatryan's kidnapping
politically motivated. On March 1, ANC organized a rally
of up to 10,000 people in central Yerevan to commemorate
the seventh anniversary of the violent clashes following
Sarkisian's inauguration. On May 8, the Electric Network of Armenia
submitted a request to the Public Services Regulatory
Commission to increase the electricity fee for public customers
by 40 percent. Protests against the increased tariffs
erupted in 15 cities on May 27 with about 15,000 protesters
attending a rally on Liberty Square in Yerevan. On June 17,
the government announced the implementation of a 16 percent
rise in the price of electricity as of August 1. In reaction,
two days later, thousands of people led by the newly-created
''No to Plunder!'' movement took to the streets in Yerevan,
calling for the cancellation of the decision. On June 23, riot
police tried to disperse a sit-in in Baghramyan Avenue using
batons and water cannon. As a result, 18 people, among
them eleven police officers, were injured and 237 protesters
detained. On July 6, the police eventually dispersed the sit-in
strike. The opposition, human rights groups, and the US Embassy
expressed their concern over reports of violence and
called for the immediate release of the protesters. Protest
campaigns led by the two movements ''No to Plunder!'' and
newly-formed ''Rise up, Armenia!'' continued in Yerevan
throughout the following months.
On October 5, the parliament voted to hold a referendum on
the constitutional reform. This was criticized by opposition
groups as strengthening the executive power of the Office
of Prime Minister and enabling Sarkisian to run for prime
minister in 2018 after the end of his second and final term
as president. Subsequently, Heritage and ANC organized
themselves in the ''No!'' front, while several small opposition
groups founded the ''New Armenia'' movement, jointly staging
protests against the referendum. After over 60 percent
had voted in favor of the constitutional reform on December
6, hundreds took to the streets in central Yerevan one day
later. Protests continued until the end of the year.
jme
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1987
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Armenia vs. Azerbaijan
territory
The violent crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
break-away region Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized
as belonging to Azerbaijan but mostly populated by
ethnic Armenians, continued. Both sides accused each other
of regularly breaking the ceasefire agreement of 1994, increasingly
using heavy weapons, and concealing the real
number of fatalities. Throughout the year, at least 41 soldiers
of both the Armenian Armed Forces as well as of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army, 37 Azerbaijani soldiers,
and three civilians were killed along both the Azeri-Armenian
border and the Line of Contact (LoC) between the Nagorno-
Karabakh region and Azerbaijan [ → Azerbaijan (Nagorno-
Karabakh)]. On January 23, Azerbaijani special operation
units fired grenades and mortar bombs in the direction of
Berd, Tavush region, killing at least two Armenian soldiers.
On February 2, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov
launched a military maneuver alongside the border involving
20,000 soldiers, 300 armored vehicles, 200 missile launchers
as well as artillery units and up to 20 military jets. Four
days later, one Azerbaijani and two Armenian soldiers were
killed in an exchange of fire along the Karabakh border. The
following day, the OSCE Minsk group and OSCE chair Ivica
Da£i¢ expressed their concern over the escalation. On July
25, Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry accused Armenian forces
of firing at Azerbaijani positions in the Goranboy, Terter,
Aghdam, Fuzuli, and Gadabay regions, killing one Azerbaijani
soldier. While Azerbaijan reported that five Armenian soldiers
had been killed in the incident, Armenia claimed that
there had been no fatalities on their side, blaming Azerbaijan
for breaking the ceasefire. Armenia conducted military command
and staff exercises from September 3 to 6, involving
mass evacuation in case of war. In reaction, from September
7 to 13, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military exercise
involving 65,000 soldiers, 700 armored vehicles, and 90 aircrafts.
On October 10, the OSCE voiced its concern over the
increased use of heavy weapons and stated that the conflict
had reached a new stage of escalation. Thereupon, on
December 19, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian and his
Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev held a meeting mediated by
the OSCE Minsk Group in the Swiss capital Bern. Both sides
expressed their willingness to settle the conflict. faw
BELARUS (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 1 | Change: | Start: 1994
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
People's Referendum, UCP, BSDP NG,
BCHD vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The dispute over the orientation of the political system
and national power between opposition parties, such as
the People's Referendum, the United Civic Party (UCP), the
Belarusian Social-Democratic Party People's Assembly (BSDP
NG), oppositional movements, and civil society activists, on
the one hand, and the government of President Alyaksandr
46