ConflictBarometer_2015

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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA Kenya continued to witness highly violent clashes between different ethnic groups over subnational predominance, water, cattle, and grazing grounds [→ Kenya (inter-ethnic violence)]. The Americas witnessed five limited wars. In Colombia, the intrastate conflict between neo-paramilitary groups and drug cartels, on the one hand, and the government, on the other, continued at the same intensity level similar to the substate conflict between these groups and the fighting between the FARC and the government [→ Colombia (intercartel violence, neo-paramilitary groups, left-wing militants); Colombia (neo-paramilitary groups, drug cartels); Colombia (FARC)]. The conflict over subnational predominance in El Salvador between the country's main criminal gangs, mainly Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18, and the government escalated to a limited war [→ El Salvador (Maras)]. Lastly, the limited war over subnational predominance, illegal drugs, and natural resources between various drug cartels in Mexico continued with the same intensity [→ Mexico (inter-cartel violence, paramilitary groups)]. In the Middle East and Maghreb, four limited wars were observed. Jabhat al-Nusra and other Sunni militant groups continued to engage in violence with the Lebanese government and Hezbollah [→ Lebanon (Sunni militant groups)]. Clashes between Tuareg, Tibu, and Zuwayya tribes over subnational predominance and the control of the trade with illicit goods and oil in southern Libya continued throughout the year [→ Libya (inter-tribal violence)]. Lastly, the limited war over ideology between Egypt, supported by Israel, and Ajnad Misr et al. continued [→ Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula)]. Between January 1 and December 15, at least 292 people were killed and 103 wounded by Islamist groups and Egyptian security forces. Two of the four limited wars observed in Asia and Oceania constituted an escalation from a violent crisis. In Myanmar, the 2014 dispute between MNDAA, supported by TNLA forces, and the Tatmadaw saw the resurgence of violence, leaving at least 750 people dead, 450 injured, and 80,000 displaced [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State)]. Furthermore, KIO and its military wing KIA, on the one hand, and the government, on the other, continued to engage in heavy fighting over autonomy and the control of jade, ruby, farmland, and timber [→ Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State)]. In Pakistan, the conflict over the secession of Balochistan province escalated to a limited war [→ Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)]. Violence between MILF and the Philippine's government escalated to the level of a limited war, following the army's withdrawal into MILF-controlled territory after fighting BIFF [→ Philippines (MILF); Philippines (BIFM, BIFF MILF, government)]. This violated a former agreement to notify the presence of government troops beforehand. (jli) REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT As in previous years, with a total of 126, Asia and Oceania saw the highest number of conflicts among the five regions. This represents 30 percent of all recorded conflicts. Sub- Saharan Africa again ranked second with 97 conflicts, followed by 71 in the Middle East and Maghreb, 62 in Europe, and 53 in the Americas. The number of highly violent conflicts increased from 17 to 20 and from five to six in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas, respectively. Numbering six, the number of highly violent conflicts remained constant in Asia and Oceania, while it de-creased from three to one in Europe. In the Middle East and Maghreb, ten wars and limited wars were counted, constitut-ing a reduction by three compared to the previous year. Regarding the number of wars, the region of Asia and Oceania saw an increase from one to two, with a conflict in the Philippines escalating to the level of a war [→ Philippines (BIFM, BIFF – MILF, government)]. The number of wars in the Middle East and Maghreb decreased by one from seven to six. There was no change in the other regions, with nine wars in Sub-Saharan Africa, and one in the Americas and Europe respectively. The number of limited wars in Sub-Saharan Africa increased from eight to eleven. The Americas saw one additional limited war, while Asia and Oceania counted one less than last year. In the Middle East and Maghreb, the number declined from six to four and in Europe both 2014 limited wars de-escalated by one level in 2015 [→ Russia (Islamist militants / Northern Caucasus); Ukraine (opposition)]. The region of Asia and Oceania displayed, as in previous years, the highest number of violent crises, with 63 cases compared to 60 cases last year. It was followed by Sub- Saharan Africa with 41, the Middle East and Maghreb with 35, the Americas with 27, and Europe with 14. The number of non-violent conflicts decreased throughout all regions, except for the Americas which saw an increase by four. In total, 57 non-violent conflicts took place in Asia and Oceania, followed by Europe with 47 cases, Sub-Saharan Africa with 36, the Middle East and Maghreb with 26, and the Americas with 20. (psc) 1 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL CONFLICTS IN 2015 BY REGION AND INTENSITY TYPE 14 47 20 41 36 27 20 6 6 63 57 high intensity medium intensity low intensity 10 35 26 Europe sub-Saharan Africa the Americas Asia and Oceania the Middle East and Maghreb 14
GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS INTRASTATE - INTERSTATE - SUBSTATE According to the HIIK Methodology, an interstate conflict is conducted between two or more states whereas intrastate conflicts are conducted between non-state actors and national governments. Substate conflicts comprise only nonstate actors. In 2015, the HIIK counted 74 interstate conflicts, of which ten were fought on a violent level. In contrast, 61 percent of all intrastate conflicts (172/280) and 75 percent of all substate conflicts (41/55) were violent. The HIIK ob-served four new interstate conflicts and three new intrastate conflicts in 2015. In Europe, only one of the 17 interstate conflicts was fought with violent means. The violent crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the break-away region Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan but mostly populated by ethnic Armenians, continued. 30 percent of all European intrastate conflicts (13/43) were conducted on a violent level, with the sole highly violent conflict being observed in Ukraine's Donbas region. The only two substate conflicts continued between right-wing and left-wing mili-tants in Greece and between right-wing militants and ethnic minorities in Hungary. In Sub-Saharan Africa, eight interstate conflicts were observed, of which only the violent crisis between Sudan and South Sudan was conducted on a violent level. In comparision, 49 of the 75 intrastate conflicts and eleven of the 14 substate conflicts were fought violently. The Americas saw 16 cases of interstate conflict. The violent crisis over border security between the USA and Mexico was the only violent interstate conflict in the region. 85 percent of the 34 intrastate conflicts (29/34) and all three substate conflicts reached a violent level. In Asia and Oceania, three of the 21 interstate conflicts saw the use of violence, while more than 60 percent (50/80) of all intrastate conflicts and 64 percent (16/25) of all substate conflicts were fought violently. The Middle East and Maghreb saw the highest share of vio-lent interstate conflicts (4/12), with three violent crises taking place in the context of the Syrian civil war. Of these, a new conflict emerged between Turkey and Russia after the down-ing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish aircraft. 65 percent of all intrastate conflicts (31/48) and all ten substate conflicts were violent. The limited war between different tribes constituted the only highly violent substate conflict in the region. (jli) DYNAMICS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL CONFLICTS Of the 402 conflicts that continued in 2015, 124 witnessed a change in intensity. A total of 59 conflicts escalated and 65 de-escalated. Additionally, seven new conflicts were registered in 2015, of which four reached the level of a violent crisis [→ Republic of Congo (opposition); Nicaragua (indigenous groups); Russia Turkey; Serbia (Kosovo – opposition)]. One conflict over subnational predominance and resources in Myanmar escalated by three levels from a dispute to a limited war [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State)]. Seven conflicts escalated by two levels. For instance, Asia and Oceania, the Maldives, Myanmar, and Nepal saw an escalation of disputes with the opposition to violent crises [→ Maldives (opposition); Myanmar (opposition); Nepal (opposition)]. In the region of the Middle East and Maghreb, the 2014 violent crisis over autonomy between the PKK and the Turkish government escalated to a war [→ Turkey (PKK)]. In Sub-Saharan Africa, a conflict over national power in Sierra Leone escalated from the level of a dispute to a violent crisis [→ Sierra Leone (APC - SLPP)]. In 13 cases, former violent crises de-escalated to disputes. In Europe, the conflict over autonomy and the orientation of the political system between the Serbian minority and the Kosovar government de-escalated to a dispute [→ Serbia (Serbian minority – Kosovar government)]. Two examples for the same dynamic in the Americas and in Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively, constituted the conflict over autonomy and resources in Brazil and the dispute between Christians and Muslims in Nigeria [→ Brazil (indigenous groups); Nigeria (Christians – Muslims)]. In Asia and Oceania, four violent crises de-escalated to dispute level, such as the opposition conflict in Thailand [→ Thailand (opposition)]. Five conflicts with the same intensity change could be observed in the Middle East and Maghreb. The war over secession, the orientation of the political system, and resources between Hamas and the Israeli government de-escalated by two levels to a violent crisis [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian Territories)]. (psc) 15
Page 1 and 2: 2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 7 and 8: Methodology
Page 9 and 10: In addition to the three constituti
Page 11 and 12: Global Conflict Panorama
Page 13 and 14: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
Page 15: GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
Page 19 and 20: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA COUPS D'É
Page 21 and 22: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
Page 23 and 24: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION adv
Page 25 and 26: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION rit
Page 27 and 28: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
Page 29 and 30: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Dur
Page 31 and 32: CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
Page 33 and 34: CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
Page 35 and 36: CONFLICT ISSUES between the House o
Page 37 and 38: CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought
Page 39 and 40: VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
Page 41 and 42: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
Page 43 and 44: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
Page 45 and 46: EUROPE they envisaged the region's
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
Page 53 and 54: EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
Page 59 and 60: EUROPE In mid-July, the government
Page 61 and 62: Sub-Saharan Africa
Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
Page 65 and 66: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA attacking Kayanz
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 300 people died,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to withdraw from
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and 16 months, r
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA latter signed th
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
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NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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THE AMERICAS fices were carried out
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THE AMERICAS Zetas, in San Pedro Ga
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THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
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THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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THE AMERICAS Maduro accused paramil
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
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ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Minister Sheikh Ha
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ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Committees in Sers
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ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
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ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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ASIA AND OCEANIA with the governmen
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ASIA AND OCEANIA until 01/09/16. Th
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ASIA AND OCEANIA nation. The ROC go
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Additionally, Thol
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ASIA AND OCEANIA national power bet
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Group sent a speec
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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ASIA AND OCEANIA over the mine's re
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ASIA AND OCEANIA use of automatic g
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ASIA AND OCEANIA The conflict betwe
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni mili
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB AFGHANISTAN
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (MA
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB On November
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB state betwe
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB and the int
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB obstruct th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Syria. In t
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In February
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB September,
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Army (LNA),
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July - September October - December
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB of whom was
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB flights to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Al-Houthi m
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YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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