ConflictBarometer_2015

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Counting 97, the number of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa remained constant in 2015, accounting for nearly a quarter of
the world's political conflicts. New conflicts erupted between the government of Burundi and Rwanda in the context of the
political crisis in Burundi as well as between opposition parties and the government of the Republic of Congo [→ Burundi
Rwanda; Republic of Congo (opposition)]. Nearly half of the world's highly violent conflicts took place in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The number of limited wars increased from eight to eleven, while the number of full-scale wars remained constant (9). The
2014 war between the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the Congolese and Ugandan governments de-escalated to the
level of a limited war [→ DR Congo, Uganda (ADF)], while inter-communal violence in South Sudan escalated to war level [→
South Sudan (inter-communal violence)].
The war between the militant group Boko Haram and the Nigerian government saw a significant rise in attacks in neighboring
Cameroon, Chad, and Niger [→ Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger (Boko Haram)]. After Boko Haram had been pushed out of
its stronghold in Gwoza, Borno state, in early 2015, the group changed its tactics from seizing and controlling territory to
hit-and-run attacks. The year accounted for more than 12,000 conflict-related deaths, among them 8,110 people being killed
by Boko Haram, and 2.4 million IDPs and refugees. Compared to the previous year, with more than 2,000 fatalities the death
toll outside Nigeria almost tripled. Due to the deteriorating security situation, presidential elections were postponed to
March 28 and 29. They were won by Muhammadu Buhari, candidate of the APC. Furthermore, the conflict over arable land in
Nigeria's Middle Belt between the predominantly Christian farmers of Berom and Tiv tribes, on the one hand, and the mainly
Muslim Fulani nomads, on the other, continued at war level [→ Nigeria (farmers pastoralists)]
In Mali, the limited war between Islamist groups and the government supported by France continued, leaving at least 190
people dead [→ Mali (Islamist groups)]. While in 2014 violence was restricted to the northern regions of Gao, Kidal, and
Timbuktu, the militant groups extended their activities towards the south of the country in 2015, conducting attacks along
the borders with Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire as well as in the capital Bamako.
In June, the MINUSMA, comprising more than 10,000 personnel, was extended by one year. Meanwhile, negotiations between
northern militant groups, such as Ifoghas Tuareg MNLA, and the government continued resulting in the signing of a peace
agreement on June 20 [→ Mali (HCUA, MNLA et al. / Azawad)]. However, both sides clashed several times in April and May.
Violent opposition conflicts were observed in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Niger, Sierra Leone, and Togo. In Burkina
Faso, the RSP loyal to the resigned president Blaise Compaoré staged a coup, denouncing the interim government's ban on
pro-Compaoré candidates from running in the October presidential elections [→ Burkina Faso (opposition)]. Ahead of the
presidential elections in neighboring Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea, violent confrontations between supporters of the opposition
parties and of the governments caused several deaths [→ Burkina Faso (opposition); Guinea (opposition)]. In Senegal, the
secession conflict between MFDC and the government escalated to a violent crisis despite ongoing peace efforts [→ Senegal
(MFDC / Casamance)]. In the Republic of Congo, a new conflict erupted between opposition groups and the ruling PCT when
President Denis Sassou Nguesso sought to change the constitution, thereby enabling himself to run for president for a third
time, which prompted large-scale protests especially in the capital Brazzaville.
In the Horn of Africa, the war between the Islamist group al-Shabaab and the Somalian and Kenyan governments remained
the most violent conflict. Although the military supported by AMISOM was able to regain territory from al-Shabaab, the group
continued to conduct bomb attacks and assassinations throughout Somalia and Kenya [→ Somalia, Kenya (al-Shabab)]. In the
northern region of Somalia, the autonomous region of Puntland was increasingly involved in border conflicts between the
self-declared Republic of Somaliland and Khatumo State [→ Somalia (Khatumo State Puntland Somaliland)]. Inter-clan
violence in the center regions of Hiiraan and Lower Shabelle continued at a violent level, while the government made efforts
to stop the fighting. Inter-ethnic violence in Kenya continued at the level of a limited war. The border region of the country's
Eastern Province was entered several times by Ethiopian military claiming to pursue members of the Ethiopia-based Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF) [→ Ethiopia (OLF / Oromiya)]. Furthermore, tensions rose between the political opposition and the
Ethiopian government in the context of the general elections held in late May. The conflict over the disputed Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD) de-escalated when Ethiopia signed an agreement with Sudan and Egypt in December on the
project's further development [→ Ethiopia Egypt, Sudan (GERD)].
The war between Anti-Balaka and ex-Séléka groups in the Central African Republic (CAR) continued. The transitional
government, led by interim President Catherine Samba-Panza, and other armed groups rejected ceasefire agreements signed
in January and April between several groups, claiming they had not been involved in the talks. In preparation for upcoming
elections, the interim government held a national forum in May, but a new wave of violence gripped the capital Bangui in
late September, leaving more than 90 people dead and more than 37,000 displaced. However, after several delays, the first
round of elections was held peacefully on December 30.
The East of the DR Congo saw the continuation of eight limited wars between local and foreign militias and between
militias and the government. After a failed demobilization process in 2014, the government launched operations against the
Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in North and South Kivu, expelling the militants from their main bases
[→ DR Congo, Rwanda (FDLR)]. Furthermore, after two failed rounds of negotiations, the military and MONUSCO engaged
in heavy fighting with the Front for Patriotic Resistance in Ituri (FRPI) in the second half of the year [→ DR Congo (Ituri
militias)]. In the run-up to the 2016 general elections, opposition supporters staged several protests in the capital Kinshasa
against a proposed change to the constitution that would allow President Joseph Kabila to run for a third term [→ DR Congo
(opposition)]. The protests were violently dispersed by government forces and resulted in the deaths of dozens of opposition
members.
In Burundi, the national power conflict between opposition parties and the government led by President Pierre Nkurunziza
escalated to a limited war in the run-up to the presidential elections. The opposition accused Nkurunziza of violating the
constitution as well as the terms of the 2000 Arusha agreement by seeking another term. An attempted coup in May by
Major General Godefroid Niyombare and Leonard Ngendakumana failed. The political crisis in Burundi negatively affected
the relationship between Burundi and Rwanda [→ Burundi Rwanda]. Both governments accused each other of supporting
the opposition.
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