ConflictBarometer_2015

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SECESSION CONFLICTS IN 2015 (NATIONAL LEVEL) INTENSITY 5 WAR 4 LIMITED WAR ___________________________________ VIOLENT 3 VIOLENT CRISIS NON-VIOLENT 2 NON-VIOLENT CRISIS 1 DISPUTE 0 NO CONFLICT
CONFLICT ISSUES Maghreb were fought on a violent level, four of them as a violent crisis. The limited war between Jabhat al-Nusra and other Sunni militant groups, on the one hand, and the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, on the other, continued [→ Lebanon (Sunni militant groups)]. The 2014 war over the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state between Hamas and the Israeli government de-escalated to a low-violent level [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian Territories)]. The violent crisis between the Palestinian National Authority led by al-Fatah party and the Israeli government continued at the same intensity level [→ Israel (PNA / Palestinian Territories)]. The status of the Western Sahara region remained the object of a violent crisis between the Popular Front of the Liberation of Saguia al-Hamra and Rio de Oro and the government of Morocco [→ Morocco (POLISARIO / Western Sahara)]. On several occasions, the police violently dispersed protesters supporting the group. In the Yemen, the Southern Mobility Movement (SMM) shifted its focus to the fight against al-Houthi rebels but continued to engage in violent clashes with government forces [→ Yemen (SMM / South Yemen)]. Three of the five secession conflicts in the region revolved around the orientation of the political system. In the Americas, only one secession conflict was observed in 2015, being the dispute between the Rapa Nui and the Chilean government over the status of the Easter Island [→ Chile (Rapa Nui / Easter Island)]. (jli, lxl, cwl, emh) AUTONOMY A total of 62 autonomy conflicts could be observed in 2015, of which 26 were violent with five being highly violent. Most of the autonomy conflicts took place in Asia and Oceania (24), followed by Europe (13) and Sub-Saharan Africa (12). Asia and Oceania was also the region witnessing the highest figure of violent autonomy conflicts (12). Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and Maghreb followed with five violent autonomy conflicts each. In 31 cases actors had additional strategic goals, most frequently the control of natural resources (19) and the orientation of the national or international political system (10). One of the 13 autonomy conflicts in Europe was fought on a violent level, marking a decrease by one compared to 2014 [→ FYROM (Albanian minority)]. The previously violent conflict between the Serbian minority and the Kosovar government de-escalated by two levels to a dispute against the backdrop of the normalization process which had been initiated in 2013 [→ Serbia (Serbian minority Kosovar government)]. Compared to the global average, actors involved in autonomy conflicts in Europe rarely pursued other conflict issues. The Serbian minority in Kosovo aimed at both an enhancement of their autonomy rights and a pro-Serbian orientation of the political system. Secondly, the Hungarian government engaged in a struggle for enhanced autonomy of its national minorities settling in Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine, thereby trying to enlarge its international power [→ Hungary Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine (Hungarian minorities)]. Five of the twelve autonomy conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa were pursued on a violent level. Two out of three wars over autonomy worldwide continued to be observed in Sudan [→ Sudan (Darfur); Sudan (SPLM/A-North/South Kordofan, Blue Nile)]. While the autonomy strife of the SPLM/A-North in the regions of South Kordofan and Blue Nile continued on war level in its fifth consecutive year, the war in Darfur continued in its 13th consecutive year. Other violent conflicts took place in Ethiopia, Mali, and Mozambique [→ Ethiopia (ONLF / Ogaden); Mali (HCUA, MNLA et al. / Azawad); Mozambique (RENAMO)]. The confrontation between the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization and the Eritrean government as well as the conflict between the Bakonzo tribe and the government of Uganda both de-escalated to non-violent crises [→ Eritrea (RSADO); Uganda (Bakonzo / Rwenzururu)]. As no threats of violence could be observed in 2015, the conflict between the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People and the Nigerian government de-escalated to a dispute [→ Nigeria (MOSOP, Ogoni / Niger Delta)]. Further three disputes over autonomy continued in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda [→ Somalia (Puntland); Sudan (Eastern Front); Uganda (Baganda / Buganda)]. Five autonomy conflicts included the claim for natural resources. In the Americas, five conflicts over autonomy were observed, of which three reached the level of a violent crisis. A new violent conflict over autonomy and resources in the North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region of Nicaragua emerged between members of the Miskito indigenous community and the government [→ Nicaragua (indigenous groups)]. In contrast, the violent crisis between various indigenous groups and the Brazilian government over autonomy, hydroelectric projects, and the demarcation of indigenous territories deescalated to a dispute [→ Brazil (indigenous groups)]. All autonomy conflicts also involved the claim for natural resources, two of them additionally the strife for a change to the political system. For instance, the indigenous Zapatista Army of National Liberation in Chiapas, Mexico, continued to fight for increased autonomy, the attainment of ore and farmland, as well as the establishment of direct democracy [→ Mexico (EZLN / Chiapas)]. Out of the 24 autonomy conflicts observed in Asia and Oceania, twelve saw the use of violence, with two of them reaching the level of a limited war. The limited war between militant Kachin and the government of Myanmar over the autonomy of Kachin State continued [→ Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State)]. Meanwhile, the conflict between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the government of the Philippines over autonomy of the Bangsamoro Republic escalated from a violent crisis to a limited war [→ Philippines (MILF)]. In both cases, the conflict parties were also striving for resources, i.e. jade, ruby, farmland, and timber in Kachin as well as gold, copper, and rubber in the Philippines. Additionally, the MILF aimed at changing the orientation of the political system. Four autonomy conflicts in the region escalated to a violent crisis. Lethal attacks by militant Hmar against the Indian government and vice versa were conducted for the first time since 2008 [→ India (HPC-D / Mizoram, Manipur, Assam)]. Nepal saw a violent escalation in its Terai region as well as in the eastern Kosi zone [→ Nepal (Madhesis, Tharus / Terai), Nepal (Kiratis / Kosi, Mechi, Sagarmatha)]. Especially in the Terai, violence increased when Madhesis blocked the border to India, protesting against the constitution promulgated in September. Furthermore, protests by Indian Sikhs, some of them demanding autonomy some secession, turned violent [→ India (Sikhs)]. In contrast, four conflicts de-escalated to a non-violent level. For instance, Hong Kong pro-democracy groups continued their protests, with no fatalities being reported [→ China (Hong Kong pro-democracy groups)]. In total, 14 of the 24 autonomy conflicts involved at least one additional political goal. In eight cases resources were an issue in the conflict, as was the orientation of the political system in five other cases. Besides the MILF in the Philippines, Tibetans also demanded an enlargement of autonomy, a change to the political system, and access to farmland and water [→ China (Tibet)]. In the Middle East and Maghreb, five violent and three non- 35
Page 1 and 2: 2015 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2015 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 7 and 8: Methodology
Page 9 and 10: In addition to the three constituti
Page 11 and 12: Global Conflict Panorama
Page 13 and 14: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2015 (SUBNATIO
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CONFLICT
Page 17 and 18: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA ANALYSIS I
Page 19 and 20: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA COUPS D'É
Page 21 and 22: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEG
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Page 27 and 28: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION AUT
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Page 31 and 32: CONFLICT ISSUES INTERNATIONAL POWER
Page 33 and 34: CONFLICT ISSUES as well as Hungary
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Page 39 and 40: VIOLENT SUBNATIONAL PREDOMINANCE CO
Page 41 and 42: NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS IN 2015
Page 43 and 44: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2015
Page 45 and 46: EUROPE they envisaged the region's
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE Lukashenka, on the other, co
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE GREECE (SOCIAL PROTESTS, LEF
Page 53 and 54: EUROPE Bridge in Moscow. Subsequent
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE MP Donika Kadaj-Bujupi was a
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE of movement and speech, paym
Page 59 and 60: EUROPE In mid-July, the government
Page 61 and 62: Sub-Saharan Africa
Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Counting 97, the
Page 65 and 66: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Overview: Confli
Page 67 and 68: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
Page 69 and 70: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Thousands of peo
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Page 73 and 74: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA The conflict ove
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Page 79 and 80: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA and 16 months, r
Page 81 and 82: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA latter signed th
Page 83 and 84: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA recurring attack
Page 85 and 86: NIGERIA, CAMEROON, CHAD, NIGER (BOK
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA the constitution
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Farah Aden, form
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA March 8. On Marc
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA claimed to have
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA killed 16 people
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to sign a compre
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Renewal had been
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE AMERICAS I
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THE AMERICAS In various countries,
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THE AMERICAS Name of conflict 1 Con
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THE AMERICAS CHILE (MAPUCHE / ARAUC
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THE AMERICAS incident an ''act of d
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THE AMERICAS November 3, the air fo
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THE AMERICAS department, who had ca
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THE AMERICAS fices were carried out
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THE AMERICAS Zetas, in San Pedro Ga
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THE AMERICAS gion of the Northern A
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THE AMERICAS gion. In a military op
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THE AMERICAS Maduro accused paramil
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEAN
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ASIA AND OCEANIA central government
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Minister Sheikh Ha
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ASIA AND OCEANIA CHINA (SOCIOECONOM
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Committees in Sers
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ASIA AND OCEANIA South China Sea in
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ASIA AND OCEANIA United Liberation
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ASIA AND OCEANIA with the governmen
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ASIA AND OCEANIA until 01/09/16. Th
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ASIA AND OCEANIA nation. The ROC go
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Additionally, Thol
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ASIA AND OCEANIA national power bet
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Group sent a speec
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Public School in P
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ASIA AND OCEANIA over the mine's re
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ASIA AND OCEANIA use of automatic g
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ASIA AND OCEANIA The conflict betwe
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB (Sunni mili
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB AFGHANISTAN
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (MA
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB On November
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB state betwe
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB and the int
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB obstruct th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Syria. In t
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB In February
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB September,
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Army (LNA),
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July - September October - December
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB of whom was
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB flights to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Al-Houthi m
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YEMEN, SAUDI ARABIA (AL-HOUTHI) Jan
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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Heidelberg Institute for Internatio
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