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11. Gedney N., Cox P.M., Douville H., Polcher J., Valdes P.J. (2000): Characterising GCM land surface schemes to understand their responses to climate change. J. Climate, 13:3066- 3079. 12. Douville H., J-F. Royer, D.B. Stephenson, S.Tyteca, J. Polcher, P. Cox, N. Gedney, P. Valdes (2000): Impact of CO2 doubling on the Asian summer monsoon: robust versus modeldependent responses. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 78, 421-439. 13. Douville H. and F. Chauvin (2000): Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal climate predictions: a preliminary study. Climate Dyn., 16, 719-736. 14. Cazenave A., F. Remy, K. Dominh, H. Douville (2000): Global ocean mass variation, continental hydrology and the mass balance of Antarctica ice sheet at seasonal time scale. Geophysical Research Letter, 27:3755-3758. 15. Stephenson D.B., H. Douville and K. Rupa Kumar (2001): Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon, special Y2K issue of Mausam, 52, 213-220. 16. Douville H., F. Chauvin, H. Broqua (2001): Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part I: Mean monsoon and daily precipitation. J. Climate, 14:2381-2403. 17. Douville H. (2002a): Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part II: interannual variability. J. Climate, 15, 701-720. 18. Garric G., H. Douville and M. Déqué (2002): Prospects for improved seasonal predictions of monsoon precipitation over Sahel. International J. Climatol., 22 (3), 331-345. 19. Chapelon N., H. Douville, P. Kosuth and T. Oki (2002): Off-line simulation of the Amazon water balance: a sensitivity study with implications for the Global Soil Wetness Project. Climate Dyn., 19, 141-154. 20. Douville H., F. Chauvin, J-F. Royer, S. Salas-Mélia, S. Tyteca (2002): Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Climate Dyn., 20, 45-68. 21. Kergoat L., S. Lafont, H. Douville, B. Berthelot, G. Dedieu, S. Planton, J-F. Royer (2002): Impact of 2xCO2 on global scale leaf area index and evapotranspiration: Conflicting stomatal and LAI responses, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (D24), 4808. 22. Pellarin T., J-P. Wigneron, J-C. Calvet, M. Berger, H. Douville, P. Ferrazzoli, Y.H. Kerr, E. Lopez-Baeza, J. Pulliainen, L.P. Simmonds, P. Waldteufel (2003): Two-year global simulation of L-brightness temperatures over land, IEEE Trans. Geosc. Remote Sens., Vol. 41, No. 9, pp. 2135-2139. 23. Ashrit R.G., H. Douville, K. Rupa Kumar (2003) Response of the Indian Monsoon and ENSOmonsoon teleconnection to Enhanced Greenhouse Effect in the CNRM Coupled Model. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 81, 779-803. 24. Douville H. (2003): Assessing the influence of soil moisture on seasonal climate variability with AGCMs. J. Hydrometeorology, 4, 1044-1066. 25. Planton S., M. Déqué, H. Douville, B. Spagnoli (2004) Impact du réchauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique. Compte-rendus Géoscience, 337, 193-202. 26. Douville H. (2004): Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal atmospheric predictions: Is it an initial value problem ? Climate Dyn., 22, 429-446. 27. Camberlin P., F. Chauvin, H. Douville, Y. Zhao (2004): Simulated ENSO-tropical rainfall teleconnections and their changes under enhanced greenhouse gases conditions. Climate Dyn., 23, 641-657. 28. Douville H. (2005) Limitations of time-slice experiments for predicting regional climate change over South Asia in the CCM. Climate Dyn., 24, 373-391. 29. Chauvin F., J-F. Royer, H. Douville (2005): Interannual variability and predictability of African easterly waves in a GCM. Climate Dyn., 24, 523-544. 30. Douville H., D. Salas-Mélia, S. Tyteca (2006) On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming. Climate Dynamics, 26, 367-385, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0088-2. 31. Douville H. (2006) Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability? Geophys. Res. Letters, 33, L02701, doi:10.1029/2005GL024967.
32. Douville H. (2006) Impact of regional SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon response to global warming in the CNRM climate model. J. Climate, 19, 2008-2024. 33. Decharme B., H. Douville, A. Boone, F. Habets, J. Noilhan (2006) Impact of an exponential profile of saturated hydraulic conductivity within the ISBA LSM : simulations over the Rhône basin. J. Hydrometeorology, 7, 61-80. 34. Decharme B., H. Douville (2006a) Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model. Climate Dyn., 26, 65-78, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0059-7. 35. Boone A., N. Mognard, B. Decharme, H. Douville, M. Grippa, K. Kerrigan (2006) The impact of simulated soil temperatures on the estimation of snow depth over Siberia from SSM/I. Remote Sensing of Environment, 101, 482-494. 36. Decharme B., H. Douville (2006b) Uncertainties in the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing and their impacts on regional and global hydrological simulations. Climate Dyn., 27, 695-713, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0160-6. 37. Conil S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2007a) The relative roles of soil moisture and SST in climate variability explored within ensembles of AMIP-type simultions. Climate Dyn. , 28, 125-145, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0172-2. 38. Douville H., S. Conil, S. Tyteca, A. Voldoire (2006) Soil moisture memory and West African Monsoon predictability : artefact or reality ? Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0207-8. 39. Terray P., F. Chauvin and H. Douville (2007) Impact of southeast Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature anomalies on monsoon-ENSO-dipole variability in a coupled oceanatmosphere model. Climate Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0192. 40. Joly M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville, P. Terray, J-F. Royer (2007) African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs in a set of IPCC AR4 coupled models. Climate Dyn. , 29, 1-20, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0215-8. 41. Decharme B. and H. Douville (2007) Global Validation of the ISBA Sub-Grid Hydrology. Climate Dyn., 29, 21-37, doi : 10.1007/s00382-006-0216-7. 42. Dufresne J-L. et al. (2007) Simulation de l’évolution récente et future du climat par les modèles du CNRM et de l’IPSL. La Météorologie, 55, 45-59. 43. Douville H., P. Terray (2007) Réponse du cycle hydrologique aux forçages anthropiques : Que nous disent les dernières simulations du GIEC ? La Météorologie, 57, 31-36. 44. Ballester J., H. Douville, F. Chauvin (2008) Present-day climatology and projected changes of warm and cold days in the CNRM-CM3 global climate model. Climate Dyn., doi : 10.1007/s00382-008-0371-0. 45. Calvet J-C., A-L. Gibelin, J-L. Roujean, E. Martin, P. Le Moigne, H. Douville, J. Noilhan (2008) Past and future scenarios of the effect of carbon dioxide effect on plant growth and transpiration for three vegetation types of southwestern France. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 8, 397-406. 46. Conil S., H. Douville, S. Tyteca (2008) Contribution of realistic soil moisture initial conditions to the boreal summer climate predictability. Climate Dyn. (in press) 47. Decharme B., H. Douville, C. Prigent, F. Papa, F. Aires (2008) A new global river flooding scheme : Off-line validation over South America. Climate Dyn. (in press) 48. Favre A., A. Gershunov, H. Douville (2008) North Pacific cyclonic / anticyclonic transients in a global warming context: possible consequences for Western North American daily precipitation and temperature extremes. J. Climate (soumis). Actes de conférence (Proceedings) : Douville H. (1995): Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to an anomalous Eurasian snow cover within the Météo-France GCM, Proceedings of the 2nd International tudy Conference on GEWEX in Asia and GAME, Pattaya, Thailand, 6-10 March 1995, pp 180-183. Douville H. (1996): Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to the Eurasian snow cover in the METEO-FRANCE GCM, Proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific Conference on the Global Energy and Water Cycle, Washington DC, USA, 17-21 June 1996, pp 527-528.
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MEMOIRE POUR L’OBTENTION DU DIPLO
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Préambule et remerciements 1. Intr
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Préambule Lorsqu’en septembre 19
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Remerciements Je veux d’abord exp
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1 Chapitre 1 Introduction En dépit
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4 « J’aperçois un péril plus g
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6 Fig. 2.1: Schématisation du cycl
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8 comme étant proportionnel à la
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10 2.1.3. Description du sol et de
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12 2.2. Ma contribution au modèle
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14 Fig. 2.3: Les principales source
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16 de la maille. Elle a été calib
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18 où Din est la somme du ruissell
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20 Concernant la neige, on dispose
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22 également des modèles de neige
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24 pas été testé lors du projet
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26 Fig. 2.7: Distributions cumulée
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28 dans les modèles météorologiq
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30 Fig. 2.9: Anomalies mensuelles d
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32 La thèse de B. Decharme fut ég
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34 « L’homme s’instruit sans c
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36 provoqués par la perturbation d
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38 suscite parfois la nature observ
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40 disparition du manteau neigeux.
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3.2.1. Neige 42 L’influence de la
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44 de travaux distincts. Si l’inf
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46 C’est en utilisant cette techn
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48 De tels résultats sont conforme
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50 3.3. Influence sur les scénario
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52 Ainsi, la réduction globale de
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54 simulations couplées océan-atm
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3.3.3. Végétation 56 A l’échel
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58 Une autre limite inhérente à c
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60 ou plusieurs simulations couplé
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