Last ned - Direktoratet for naturforvaltning

Klimaendringer, havforsuring og langtransportert forurensning
fillet generally exceed the environmental quality standard (EQS) set by the EU. However, the
pollution levels found at present have not generally been shown to have direct biological effects.
It is concluded that, particularly considering the implications for food safety, long-range transport of
hazardous substances currently has moderate effects in the management plan area. In the “positive”
and “negative” scenarios for 2030, the effects are assessed as minor and moderate respectively.
Long-range transport of marine litter affects the entire management plan area to a varying degree.
Marine litter has been shown to have a number of biological effects, both externally and internally.
For example, ingested litter may damage the digestive system or block the gut, preventing the
ingestion of food and digestion. There is also concern about the possible effects of microplastic
pollution, although relatively low concentrations were found in a study in the Skagerrak. It is likely
that marine litter harms only a small proportion of many populations, but that a much larger
proportion of certain seabird populations (particularly the northern fulmar) is affected. It is
concluded that marine litter currently has moderate effects, and this result remains unchanged in
both scenarios for 2030.
Long-range transport of radioactive substances: in general, both inputs and levels of radioactive
pollution are low in the North Sea and Skagerrak, but higher than in the Norwegian and Barents Seas.
Current levels are well below those that have been shown to have effects on biota. The effects of this
factor are therefore assessed as minor at present, and also in both scenarios for 2030. However, the
“negative” scenario specifies a higher risk of acute pollution. The effects could be considerably more
serious in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity.
Long-range transport of nutrients and organic material. Concentrations of nutrients are generally low
in the management plan area, but there are elevated concentrations in the Norwegian coastal
current in the Skagerrak. The concentrations found at present probably have only minor effects in
the management plan area. However, the combination of long-range transport and local inputs of
nutrients along the Skagerrak coast may have effects on algal/seaweed communities used as a
habitat by species that are also found in the management plan area. The assessment concludes that
long-range transport of nutrients and organic material has minor effects today. In the “positive” and
“negative” scenarios for 2030, the effects are assessed as minor and moderate respectively.
Acute pollution: Scenarios have also been developed for a release of radioactivity from the
reprocessing plant at Sellafield and an oil spill from the Preemraff oil refinery in Lysekil in Sweden.
Modelling of the scenario for radioactive pollution from Sellafield indicates that there would be no
effects on marine organisms, but that caesium 137 concentrations in fish and other seafood species
in upper layers of the water column might for a short period of time exceed current limits.
Assessment of the scenario for an oil spill from the Preemraff refinery indicates a high potential for
transport of oil into the management plan area. It is concluded that an oil spill would have moderate
effects, but the level of uncertainty is high.
Combined impacts
There may be complex interactions between the different pressures described in this report, which
makes it very difficult to predict the cumulative environmental effects. When a number of pressures
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