Abstract-Band KLIFF-Tagung 2.und 3.9.13

Thema 3: Auswirkungen auf Pflanzen, Tiere und Ökosystemebrassicae) and cabbage white fly (Aleyrodes proletella), and theirrespective parasitoids, Diaeretiella rapae and Encarsia tricolor, asmodel organism. The estimated impact of climate change for LowerSaxony includes mild winters, hot and dry summers, and anincreased frequency of extreme events. Because developmentaland reproductive rates of insect species are temperature dependentand species-specific, climatic changes can influence the pestand parasitoid species differently, and change pest-parasitoid populationdynamics. Changes in population dynamics then have to betaken into consideration for adaptations of pest managementstrategies. To model the impact of the predicted climatic changeson the pest-parasitoid interactions age-structured simulation modelswere developed which estimate changes in population size foreach species during the course of a year. Based on temperaturedata simulated by the climate model REMO (scenario A1B, MPI forMeteorology, Climate Service Center in Hamburg) the parameterswere estimated for two future time periods, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, and compared to parameters estimated for a reference timeperiod (1971-2000). The relative changes in maximum populationsize and the occurrence of population peaks for each species wereanalysed for the Lower Saxony area to investigate regional differences.First results of independent simulations (without interaction)of population dynamics of B. brassica and D. rapae showedan increase in maximum population size and the length of activityperiod for both species in three vegetable growing regions in LowerSaxony (Peine, Cloppenburg and Harbug). The results differedbetween the two species but not significantly between regions.Simulations under examination incorporate the interactions thatoccur naturally between the species and allow comparison of impactsof climate change on pest parasitoid interactions betweentime periods. The generated results will help us to develop adaptationstrategies for plant protection in horticulture.Brevicoryne brassicae, Diaeretiella rapae, Aleyrodes proletella,Encarsia tricolor, population dynamics90