Twenty-First Century Populism: The Spectre of Western European ...

126 Twenty-First Century Populism
This raises the question of appropriate counterstrategies. The resurgence
of the NPD over the last few years is a clear indication that the social and
constitutional stigmatization of right-wing extremism in Germany does
not destroy its potential to woo voters and influence people’s attitudes. On
the contrary, this potential has been diverted into the dark recesses of violence
and sectarianism, while the right-wing parties’ prospects of success at
the ballot box have remained slim. The fact that this situation has now
changed is partly due to the heavy-handed use of the state’s instruments of
repression. For example, the bans imposed on 18 right-wing extremist
groupings since 1990 might well have channelled at least some of the potential
for right-wing extremist success back towards the NPD. Similarly, the
collapse of the prohibition proceedings against the NPD itself boosted the
standing of the extremist Right at the polls, especially in its stronghold of
Saxony.
Opportunity structures in politics: government compositions
and the strategic capabilities of mainstream parties
The restrictive environment within which right-wing extremism and populism
operate in Germany does not rule out occasional electoral success. As
a rule, however, these are linked to windows of political opportunity that
can be exploited in the short term, but are liable to snap shut again very
quickly. The term ‘opportunity structure’ is often used in political science
to cover all the determinant factors that influence the emergence of new
parties (Tarrow, 1991). These range from social cleavages and the institutional
framework of the system of government (i.e. factors that only change
over a long-term period) to circumstantial factors on the ‘supply side’ of
politics. In order to differentiate between the two, I shall restrict my use of
the term to the latter type of factor. In such opportunity structures, the
favourability or otherwise of temporary circumstances depends on the one
hand on the government composition and the party-political balance of
power in a country, and, on the other, on the strategic abilities of the mainstream
parties.
If government composition were the only relevant factor, the mobilization
prospects of the right-wing parties actually ought to have improved
during the 16 years of centre-right government led by Chancellor Helmut
Kohl. Their poor performance therefore seems to indicate that the issues
highlighted by these challengers in Germany either mattered little to the
general public or were already well covered by the established parties. An
international comparison shows that the new brand of right-wing populism
attracts most of its support on the basis of three issues: partyocracy, the
Welfare State and immigration (Decker, 2004: 195 onwards). The greatest
appeal is exercised by those parties that take advantage of every issue on the
political agenda and package their views into a sustained winning formula.
The German representatives of populism are still far from that level.