Twenty-First Century Populism: The Spectre of Western European ...

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The Republic of Ireland 215 future and, if it does, it will find many of the same opportunities around which populist parties elsewhere in Western Europe have successfully mobilized over the last two decades. Of course, the climate for populism in Ireland could be better. For example, greater politicization of immigration and European integration over the coming years would clearly favour a populist breakthrough. Indeed, given the numbers of immigrants who have arrived in Ireland over the last decade and the fact that the country will have to get used to an EU in which it has obligations and duties rather than privileges and handouts, this is quite likely. Public anxiety about a downturn in the economy and an increase in salience of the secular/clerical cleavage would also facilitate the rise of populism and, again, both of those are liable to happen at some point over the next decade. Most importantly, perhaps, a decline in the fortunes of Sinn Féin would open up a significant space in the electoral market for a new populist party, whether of the Left or the Right. Along with the existence of a capable, charismatic leader, however, a sine qua non for populist success is what has been termed as an ‘antipolitical climate’ or a widespread sense of ‘political malaise’ (Mastropaolo, 2000; 2005), that is the loss of trust in, and development of cynicism about, political institutions and actors. From this perspective it is interesting to consider, as John Coakley notes, that while a 1990 survey showed the Irish were more likely than others in Europe to have confidence in their institutions, ‘by 1997 this position had changed ... trust in parliament was low, comparable with the position elsewhere in Europe, and trust in political parties was lower still: 72 per cent distrusted them’ (Coakley, 1999: 56–57). Likewise, it is worth noting that, in his study of newspaper coverage of the 2002 general election campaign, Heinz Brandenburg (2005: 297) finds that the most significant aspect was ‘the predominantly negative attitude of all Irish print media towards political actors ... in Ireland we seem to be faced with a rather homogeneous anti-politics bias’. Finally, as a May 2006 opinion poll published in The Irish Times reported, 42 per cent of Irish voters believed that the next general election would make no difference to how the country is run and 36 per cent felt it would make only a minor difference. 57 per cent said it would make no difference to their lives personally (Brennock, 2006). If, as Canovan (1999) argues, therefore, populists exploit the decline of the ‘redemptive’ and the rise of the ‘pragmatic’ face of democracy, then the prospects for a populist party in Ireland seem rather good indeed. Whenever the dog decides to bark, of course. Notes 1. I would like to thank Michael Gallagher, Peter Mair, Alfio Mastropaolo and Eoin O’Malley for their comments on an earlier version of this chapter. Thanks also to David Connolly for proofreading the final draft and to Daragh O’Connell both
216 Twenty-First Century Populism for his help in gathering materials and for, along with Ian Curtin, playing devil’s advocate on a number of points. 2. Both FF and FG can trace their roots to the pre-independence Sinn Féin (SF) party. Following the end of the War of Independence in 1921, the party split into two factions: those who accepted the Treaty with the British and partition, and those who did not. A civil war between the two sides in 1922−23 was won by the pro- Treaty forces, which governed as Cumann na nGaedhael from 1923 until 1932, before merging with the Centre Party and the quasi-fascistic National Guard (better known as ‘the Blueshirts’) of Eoin O’Duffy to form FG in 1933. FF resulted from a split in SF in 1926 when De Valera and his supporters decided to recognize the Irish Free State and enter the Dáil (Irish Parliament). For detailed accounts of the development of the Irish party system and nationalist politics in Ireland, see Mair (1987) and Garvin (2005). 3. As Mair (1997b: 66) points out: ‘Both party systems were born in civil wars; both more or less sustained that original opposition for some decades afterwards despite otherwise limited ideological differences; and both might be seen to have fostered personalistic representational linkages while devaluing programmatic appeals’.
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viii Contents 12 Britain: Imperial
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Page 237 and 238: Bibliography Akkerman, T. Anti-immi
Page 239 and 240: 226 Bibliography BNP (2005) Rebuild
Page 241 and 242: 228 Bibliography Dahl, R. A. (1999)
Page 243 and 244: 230 Bibliography Germani, G. (1975)
Page 245 and 246: 232 Bibliography Ivaldi, G. Le Fron
Page 247 and 248: 234 Bibliography Lehingue, P. (2003
Page 249 and 250: 236 Bibliography Mazzoleni, G. (200
Page 251 and 252: 238 Bibliography Pelinka, A. (2005)
Page 253 and 254: 240 Bibliography Schedler, A. Anti-
Page 255 and 256: 242 Bibliography Trechsel, A. H. (2
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Page 259 and 260: 246 Index Chirac, Jacques 58, 168,
Page 261 and 262: 248 Index Jagers, Jan 58 Jansson, M
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