Twenty-First Century Populism: The Spectre of Western European ...

The Republic of Ireland 205
(Laver, 2005: 193). A populist party like the LPF or the Lega Nord – heavily
reliant on the national image of the leader and often fielding a series of
unfamiliar local names in constituencies – would therefore need a miracle
(or at least a moment of severe national crisis) to emerge as a significant
parliamentary force in Ireland over just one or two elections as happened in
Holland and Italy (see the chapters in this volume by Paul Lucardie and
Marco Tarchi).
The economy
The structural element in Ireland which has changed most radically over
the last fifteen years is, of course, the economy. While the 1980s was a decade
of spiralling national debt, high unemployment and large numbers of
young people emigrating, the period since has seen spectacular and previously
unimaginable growth in a country which had been one of the poorest
in the EU. As a result, the national debt has been slashed, Irish Gross National
Product has surpassed the EU 15 average (having been just two-thirds of it
in the 1980s), emigrants are returning and the unemployment rate is now
the lowest in the EU. On the surface, therefore, the Celtic Tiger would appear
to offer few opportunities for the Celtic populist given that, elsewhere in
Western Europe, populist parties have fruitfully exploited economic crises,
or at least the prospect of them.
The situation is not quite so clear-cut, however. First of all, as we have
seen, throughout the history of the Irish state, economic development and
‘the national interest’ have been put forward as the goals at whose altar all
cleavages should be sacrificed. Now that very considerable economic development
has indeed been achieved in Ireland, this may allow other, more
divisive, issues to come to the fore of political and public debate − to the
obvious advantage of the populist. Second, it is important to note that,
despite the very real economic growth and improvements in living standards
which have taken place, the ‘rising tide’ has not lifted all boats. Or, at
least, it has lifted some boats far more than others. With the economic boom
has come a high level of earnings inequality and the gap between rich and
poor in Ireland has widened quite considerably. Indeed, the 2005 United
Nations Human Development Report showed Ireland to be one of the most
unequal countries in the developed world ‘with the richest 10 per cent of
the population having 9.7 times more wealth than the poorest 10 per cent’
(Humphreys, 2005). Third, and related to the previous point, one of the keys
to economic growth in Ireland has been the system of Social Partnership,
the pillars of which have been wage restraint and tax cuts. As Brian Nolan,
Philip J. O’Connell and Christopher T. Whelan (2000: 352) conclude, now
that the goals of economic development and employment growth on which
it was based have been fulfilled, ‘the institutions of social partnership are
likely to come under increasing pressure’, especially as those on middle and