convergence

Lawlessness and Disorder
insecurity, and illegality. The discussion of each of these megatrends is inevitably brief and
superficial but perhaps sufficient to tease out the implications for security and the development
of illicit activities and markets.
Few trends or developments, however, are wholly negative in their impact. Urbanization,
for example, has some positive consequences. Cities are engines of growth, drivers of innovation,
concentrations of cultural vitality, and, as Edward Glaese has argued, provide “the clearest
path from poverty to prosperity.” 18 Indeed, the urban poor are generally better off than the rural
poor, which is why cities attract people from rural areas. Nevertheless, cities—as suggested
below—also pose enormous challenges to security and stability. The issue is not an either/
or; it is about the mix of positives and negatives. And the argument here is that sensitivity to
the negatives needs to increase significantly.
The Drivers of Insecurity and Illegality
Globalization
Much has already been written about globalization, which is readily understood in terms of
an enormous increase in the speed, ease, and density of transactions, reduction of transaction
costs for the movement of commodities, development of various kinds of global flows, and
increased interactions of individuals, societies, and economies. Although many benefits accrue
from globalization, it is clear that it has a serious downside. Globalization has increased insecurity
in a variety of ways—challenging cultural identity, disrupting social and political norms,
and increasing transnational global flows that no single government can control and that are
increasingly difficult to monitor. Globalization has facilitated various forms of trafficking and
empowered criminal enterprises, has had disruptive consequences that have created incentives
for criminality, and has enabled criminals and other violent armed groups to share operational
knowledge and, in some cases, to collaborate.
Indeed, globalization has become an important facilitator for transnational organized
crime, drug traffickers, terrorists, and the like. Those involved in trafficking illegal commodities
(prohibited, regulated, counterfeit, or stolen goods) including drugs, endangered species, small
arms, nuclear material, cultural property, and counterfeit pharmaceuticals are able to hide them
in the vast amount of licit trade, creating both needle-in-a-haystack and needle-in-a-needlestack
challenges to state entities seeking to combat trafficking. Although Stephen Krasner is
correct in his observation that states “have never been able to perfectly regulate transborder
flows,” it is arguable that they have never before had to contend with the sheer volume, speed,
and diversity of the people and commodities that cross their borders both legally and illegally.
19 In many respects, the prosaic and unheralded symbol of globalization is the intermodal
container, a development that has transformed the scale of global trade by reducing transaction
costs and—in spite of such measures as the Container Security Initiative rolled out by U.S.
Customs and Border Protection—largely denied states the ability to control what comes
across their borders unless they are willing to place global trade on hold. As the author of the
definitive history of the container noted:
19