convergence

Global Scale and Impact of Illicit Trade
anecdotal information and supposition.” Yet after making a review of the literature on illegal
logging and checking whether the estimates are credible in light of trade and other relevant
data, the report concludes that illegal logging represents on the order of 8–10 percent of global
wood products trade.
Illegal Fisheries. A 2009 study was apparently the first attempt to undertake a worldwide
analysis of illegal and unreported fishing. 31 It finds that current illegal and unreported fishing
losses worldwide are between $10 billion and $23.5 billion annually (mean value of $16.75
billion, or 20.55 percent of declared import value), representing between 11 and 26 million
tons. The study uses primary data sources from several key composite studies supplemented by
country-specific studies. In the source studies, a number of different methods have been used
to estimate the level of illegal fishing, including surveillance data, trade data, stock assessments
based on survey data, and expert opinion. The price data used were those reported by the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UN).
The frequently cited global estimates ranging from $5 to $20 billion have no scientific
basis. According to TRAFFIC, “Comprehensive trade data only exist for species covered by
CITES—and even here problems with the accuracy of CITES trade reporting mean that
trade data are indicative rather than actual.”
Illegal Waste. A report from the European Union Network for the Implementation and
Enforcement of Environmental Law presents a data-driven assessment of illegal waste in
which 72 percent of the quantity (93 percent of declarations) of toxic waste exported to non-
OECD countries in 2003 potentially constituted illegal trafficking, 32 as the transporters did
not have an approved notification. It nevertheless “highlights the lack of data on the scale and
breadth of illegal waste movements.” Separately, an “International Crime Threat Assessment”
prepared by the U.S. Government in 2000 estimated that criminal organizations earn $10 to
$12 billion per year for dumping trash and hazardous waste materials. 33 The source of this
frequently cited estimate is not mentioned.
Defining the Problem
The UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which came into effect in late
2003, is a reasonable starting point to develop a definition. The convention covers offenses with
a transnational component as well as so-called serious crimes such as money laundering and
corruption, which “are made in order obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material
benefit.” 34 An offense is transnational if (1) it is committed in more than one state, (2) it is
committed in one state but planned from another state, (3) it involves a criminal group that
has criminal activities in more than one state, or (4) it has substantial effects in another state.
Paradoxically, as noted in UNODC’s threat assessment on transnational organized crime,
“the Convention contains no precise definition of transnational organized crime,” and “the
implied definition of ‘transnational organized crime’ encompasses virtually all profit-motivated
criminal activities with international implications.” It is further recognized that such a broad
definition “leaves the exact subject matter rather vague.” While the absence of a definition may
be explained by the desire to integrate political sensitivities over illegal markets, it makes it
more difficult to use the convention for measurement purposes.
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