convergence

Picard
The study was based on a variety of sources that include reported cases, which were validated
by ILO experts. Forced labor is peculiar among illicit activities in that it extends over a long
period, which allows for models that can be used to estimate the probability that events are
reported over time. Therefore, it is theoretically possible to exhaustively review available sources,
although this is not practical given the millions of publications that would need review.
Therefore, an astute variation of the “capture-recapture” method was used. Capture-recapture
methods are commonly employed in ecology to estimate population size when it is not possible
to count all individuals present in the population, in which case an estimate of the total
population can be inferred from the degree of overlap between different counts (the lower the
overlap, the larger the estimate). Adapting this method, two separate teams searched for cases
in a variety of databases for a period of 6 months and the estimate was extrapolated from the
degree of overlap.
The GAO report does point out a few methodological weaknesses, most notably on the
extrapolations needed to overcome the gap between reported and unreported victims. Nevertheless,
the transparency of assumptions, the effort to use a clear definition, and the overall
availability of data sources provide a certain degree of confidence in this figure. The ILO has
also used standard methods for estimating the annual revenue generated by the 2.5 million
people in trafficked forced labor. The estimated annual profits are broken down by region of
the world, and for sexual versus other commercial exploitation. The estimated total stands at
$32 billion and represents an average revenue of $12,800 per person. 28
Environmental Crime
According to TRAFFIC, the wildlife trade monitoring network, the value of legal, international
wildlife trade was nearly $292.7 billion in 2005, based on declared import values. This
includes timber ($190 billion), wild fisheries ($81.5 billion), and other wildlife ($21.2 billion),
which includes plants, animal products, and live animals. Below we review the estimates on the
global extent of illicit trade for each category.
Illegal logging can be defined broadly to include violations of any number of international,
national, or local laws and regulations. However, as pointed out in a report prepared for the
American Forest & Paper Association, 29 if illegal logging clearly signifies legal abuses, there is
considerable debate about what might be considered illegal. Some illegal activities “appropriately
rise to a level of international concern,” such as harvesting without authority in designated
national parks, without or in excess of concession permit limits, or violating international
agreements such as CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of
Wild Fauna and Flora). A 2004 report from the World Bank on forest sustainability placed
the annual revenue loss to governments from failure to collect taxes from forest concessions
at more than $5 billion, and the annual market value of losses from illegal cutting of forests
at over $10 billion. 30 While both elements are illegal, only the latter is directly contributing
to deforestation, which places the illegal market at slightly more than 5 percent of the global
market. However, the American Forest & Paper Association reports that the World Bank estimate
was published without reference to a supporting methodology, adding that “No matter
how broad or narrow illegal forest activity might be interpreted, its extent is impossible to
know with any degree of certainty. Reported estimates are generally supported only through
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