convergence

Williams
rates. . . . In 2050, approximately 30 percent of Americans, Canadians, Chinese, and Europeans
will be over 60, as will more than 40 percent of Japanese and South Koreans.” 30 While there
are concerns that this will lead to declines in productivity, one sector that will flourish is health
care: “As populations age, they will demand more health care for longer periods of time.” 31 When
this is combined with the advances in medicine, it seems likely that the demand for replacement
organs will increase. Although organ trafficking was long dismissed as an urban myth, it is clear
that it has occurred in several countries. In one case in Kosovo, for instance, organized crime
was clearly involved. According to one commentary, the organ-trafficking network “included
criminals from countries such as . . . Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and Israel.” 32 Such cases
are all too likely to expand in scope and frequency. After all, there are increasing numbers of
young, healthy potential donors in the developing world, increasing numbers of potential recipients
in the developed world, and more than enough criminal middlemen and unscrupulous
healthcare workers willing to match them up regardless of laws and regulations.
Urbanization
Cities have always been engines of economic growth, repositories of wealth, power, and entrepreneurship,
and centers of culture, scholarship, and innovation. But they have also been
breeding grounds of disease, concentrations of poverty and crime, and drivers of instability
and revolution. For a variety of reasons, the future development of cities is more likely to create
negative rather than positive effects and precipitate instability rather than create order. Some
urban areas will even degenerate into what Richard Norton has termed “feral cities,” which are
effectively ungovernable and out of control. 33 What makes this all the more important is that
in the next few decades, there will be more cities, more larger cities, and more globally connected
cities. Big cities mean big problems, and globally connected cities mean global problems.
Before examining these problems in more detail, however, it is necessary to offer some brief
observations about the growing importance of cities. The analysis then considers ways in which
continued urbanization might impinge on stability and security.
One of the most dramatic facets of urbanization is the growth of megacities. Inclusion in
this category requires 10 million or more inhabitants. Yet, as one scholar has noted:
22
The number increased dramatically from three megacities (Mexico City, New York,
Tokyo) in 1975 to around 20 in 2007 and is projected to reach almost 30 worldwide
by 2025. The emerging megacities whose populations range from five to ten million
have likewise experienced a notable increase. The number is expected to increase
from currently about 30 to almost 50 in 2025. Together, “established” and emerging
megacities now account for roughly 15% of the world’s total urban population. 34
The sheer size of such cities creates major environmental hazards, generates serious law and
order problems especially in poorer areas of poorer cities, and strains infrastructures that are
already overstretched. Yet the problem is not simply one of size; even smaller cities of a few
million can become violent and dystopian as has happened in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and
Caracas, Venezuela, both of which have seen homicide rates surpass 200 per 100,000.