MFG/PRO 9.0 User Guide Volume 3: Manufacturing - QAD.com

Forecast Methods
FORECASTING/MASTER SCHEDULE PLANNING 211
Forecast methods are identified by two-digit method numbers. Table 11.2
lists the forecast method numbers available in MFG/PRO.
Method Number Usage
00 Indicates that a forecast detail record was not
generated by the system, but was created manually
using the copy programs or using CIM interface.
01–06 MFG/PRO predefined forecast methods.
07–50 Reserved for QAD usage.
51–99 Use these numbers to identify your own
forecasting methods.
There are six predefined forecast methods, described in Table 11.3. You
can create additional methods using User Forecast Method Maintenance
(22.7.17).
Method # Type Description
01 Best Fit Uses all predefined methods—02 through 06—
and selects the results with the least mean
absolute deviation. This is the default forecast
method.
02 Double Moving
Average
03 Double
Exponential
Smoothing
04 Winter’s Linear
Exponential
Smoothing
The simplest of the forecasting techniques. It uses a
set of simple moving averages based on historical
data and then computes another set of moving
averages based on the first set. The moving averages
are based on four months of data. This method
produces a forecast that lags behind trend effects.
The most popular of the forecast techniques. It is
similar to Double Moving Average, except that it
uses the alpha factor to weigh the most recent sales
data more heavily than the older sales data. This
method produces a forecast that lags behind trends
effects.
Produces results similar to Double Exponential
Smoothing, but incorporates a seasonal/trend
adjustment factor. This method can be used to
forecast based on sales history containing both trends
and seasonal patterns. Uses the trend and alpha
factors. Requires two years of history.
Table 11.2
Method Numbers
Ï See page 213.
Table 11.3
Predefined Forecast
Methods