final_program_abstracts[1]

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11 IMSC Session Program on climatic mechanisms is also presented to judge the quality of the clustering obtained. Besides, classical method for climate zone delineation, like S-mode and Tmode procedures, were performed and a comparison of results obtained with different method is worth evaluating the functional data approach. Abstracts 141
11 IMSC Session Program Downscaling climate change projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model Tuesday - Parallel Session 5 Arthur M. Greene Downscaled rainfall projections for the Indian summer monsoon are generated using information from both a dense observational dataset and an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs), with estimation carried out in the framework of a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM). Simulations, produced at daily resolution, are both constrained by observed spatiotemporal variability and conditioned by changes in large-scale fields from the GCMs, drawing from each class of information those attributes it is best suited to provide. Warming of the planet brings about an increase in lower tropospheric moisture, while a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation shifts the balance in favor of drier states. The NHMM assimilates both of these tendencies, projecting distributions that respect GCMinferred changes in the circulation and moisture fields while retaining the fine-scale structure implicit in the observational record. Abstracts 142
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