final_program_abstracts[1]

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11 IMSC Session Program Warm and cold spells – their changes and causes Friday - Poster Session 7 Morak Simone, Gabriele Hegerl This study deals primarily with the changes in warm and cold spells during the winter months January and February, showing changes in the duration of those spells and their return time. The study attempts to determine if these changes are related to the climate change signal or if they could be explained by teleconnection patterns or general global circulation. Abstracts 317
11 IMSC Session Program Nonparametric testing for change in the frequency of extreme events Friday - Poster Session 7 Markus Neuhäuser Department of Mathematics and Technique, RheinAhrCampus, Koblenz University of Applied Sciences, Remagen, Germany The detection of a change in the frequency of extreme events in a time series is of particular interest in climatology. Lopez-Diaz (Journal of Climate 203; 16, 2602- 2614) proposed to apply the nonparametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. Here it is shown that, when the climate is becoming more extreme, the positions that the events occupy in the series have a smaller variance than the positions without the event. In addition, there are obviously more observations without than with an extreme event. In such a scenario another rank-based test, the test introduced by Brunner and Munzel (Biometrical Journal 2000; 42, 17-25) is much more powerful than the Wilcoxon- Mann-Whitney test. This difference in power is demonstrated here using simulated data and three real time series on climate change. Abstracts 318
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11 IMSC Session Program On the stat
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