final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Changing the focus: Studying uncertainty in palaeoclimate
reconstruction
Monday - Parallel Session 3
Catlin Buck
Current understanding of Holocene climate is largely based on study of preserved
environmental indicators (known as climate proxies). Until recently those seeking to
reconstruct palaeoclimate on the basis of proxies have typically used simple,
correlation-based statistical methods which map directly from proxy observations to
statements about past climate without providing formal statements about the link
between climate and the proxy in question. Such research has focused on obtaining
point estimates of past climate and has not placed much emphasis on associated
uncertainties. With increased interest in comparing and combining reconstructions,
however, the key role of high quality uncertainty estimates is now becoming clear. In
this talk, we will focus on these uncertainties, providing an overview of recent work
by members of a Leverhulme Trust funded International Research Network that is
Studying Uncertainty in Palaeoclimate Reconstruction (SUPRAnet). We will discuss
the limitations of the statistical methods currently in routine use and then outline a
probabilistic research framework that is allowing us to a) better understand the nature
and scale of uncertainties associated with proxy-based reconstructions and b) provide
a modular, multi-proxy approach to past climate reconstruction. Several of the other
talks in this session are given by members of SUPRAnet and will describe modelling,
implementation and computational developments that are taking place withing the
broad framework outlined here.
Abstracts 70