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11 IMSC Session Program Recent changes in sub-hourly and daily intense rainfall events in South-East Australia Friday - Parallel Session 7 Dörte Jakob 1,2 , David Karoly 1 and Alan Seed 2 1 School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne University, Melbourne, Australia 2 Bureau of Meteorology,, Melbourne, Australia There is little information in the published literature on potential changes in the magnitude and frequency of intense rainfall events at sub-daily and sub-hourly durations for Australia. This is partially due to the lack of suitable observational and model data. Potential changes in both the frequency and intensity of rainfall at short durations are particularly relevant for urban applications. Given the potential for significant economic loss and severe social implications, it is prudent to explore changes in the frequency and magnitude of these rainfall events. This paper attempts to address this gap by analysing rainfall data for parts of the densely populated south-east of Australia. Intense rainfall events were identified using a peaks-overthreshold (POT) approach. Thresholds were defined in terms of the average number of exceedances per year and three different thresholds were considered (20, 10 and 3 events per year). A range of durations (from 6 minutes to 72 hours) was considered to explore contrasting changes at sub-hourly and daily durations. Based on historical data for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill, New South Wales) for the period 1921 to 2005, a methodology was developed for investigating changes in frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events for durations ranging from 6 minutes to 72 hours. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of those changes. Deviations from the longterm average vary with season, duration and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs. Significant deviations from the long-term average frequency are found for only the highest threshold. Quantile estimates for the period 1976 to 2005 show significant decrease for the 6 and 72-hour durations. Using data for a common period (1976-2005) for a set of 31 sites located in New South Wales and Victoria (south-east Australia), it was possible not only to explore how changes in the frequency and magnitude of rainfall events vary with season and geographical location but also whether such changes are consistent across groups of sites, giving greater confidence that changes identified as statistically significant are indeed climate driven and not due to, e.g., poor data or changes in site characteristics. Analysis of seasonality in the frequency and magnitude of events revealed considerable variation across the set of sites, implying different dominating rainfall producing mechanisms and/or interactions with local topography. Both these factors are relevant when assessing the potential effects of climate on intense rainfall events and the set of sites was therefore split into groups according to the characteristics of intense rainfall events. While sites in the north of the study area typically exhibit a decrease in frequency, particularly in autumn and at medium and longer durations, Abstracts 345
11 IMSC Session Program sites in the south experience an increase in the frequency of events in summer (particularly for short durations) but also for spring (across the range of durations). Abstracts 346
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