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11 IMSC Session Program efficient cost function criteria for the application of the sampling methods for closure parameter estimation. Abstracts 223
11 IMSC Session Program Skill in large ensembles of downscaled seasonal forecasts Wednesday - Poster Session 11 Raymond W. Arritt for the MRED Team Iowa State University, Ames, USA The Multi-Regional climate model Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project is producing large ensembles of downscaled seasonal forecasts from coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal prediction models. Eight regional models each are downscaling 15-member ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the new NASA seasonal forecast system based on the GEOS5 atmospheric model coupled with the MOM4 ocean model. This produces 240-member ensembles (8 regional models x 15 global ensemble members x 2 global models) for each winter season 1982-2003. Preliminary results show that the combined global-regional downscaled forecasts show skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies in strong El Niño events such as 1982-83 and 1997- 98. In these cases the regional models add useful spatial detail to the global forecasts, mainly due to better resolution of terrain in the regional models. Skill for weakly forced or ENSO-neutral conditions is lower and is much more difficult to evaluate. Our results emphasize that an ensemble approach is essential to realizing the added value from the combined global-regional modeling system, and that the minimum ensemble size to obtain useful ensemble skill varies with the climate regime (e.g., El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Our project also points to the challenge of finding appropriate statistical methods to extract maximum value from large multi-model ensembles. Abstracts 224
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