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11 IMSC Session Program counts as well as model limitation. Uncertainty estimates are hence non-homogeneous in time. Abstracts 73
11 IMSC Session Program Mechanistic modeling of proxy data for Bayesian climate reconstructions Monday - Parallel Session 3 Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward, Michael N. Evans, Malcolm K. Hughes and Kevin J. Anchukaitis Paleoclimate reconstructions may benefit from the inclusion of information on the mechanisms that form climate proxy data{ signatures of past climate variability imprinted on natural archives through biological, physical or chemical processes. We present a simple forward model of tree ring width formation, called VS-Lite, which is efficient enough to be integrated into Bayesian climate reconstructions. VS-Lite runs on monthly temperature and precipitation inputs, and accounts for the nonlinear inuences of temperature and moisture availability on annual growth through the principle that the more limiting factor will control the proxy response. The model simulates two networks of North American ring width chronologies with comparable or better skill than regression of the proxy series on the principal components of monthly climate data. VS-Lite also performs more consistently with its calibrationinterval skill in verification exercises. In an analogue of classical pseudoproxy climate field reconstructions, we also evaluate the results of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling experiment that conditions past climate on synthetic tree-ring series. The target variables are the known temperature and precipitation fields generated by a General Circulation Model. VS- Lite generates the \observed" ring width data from the target fields, and also relates past climates to these proxy series at the data level of the Bayesian hierarchy. We compare our results to those from a more standard approach based on extrapolation of statistical- empirical climate-ring width relationships. Abstracts 74
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