final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Incorporating sea-surface temperature trends in a stochastic
hurricane model
Friday - Poster Session 7
Jessica Turner 1 , Katie Coughlin 1 , Thomas Laepple 2 , Steve Jewson 1 , Enrica
Bellone 1 and Dan Rowlands 3
1 Risk Management Solutions, U.K.
2 Alfred Wegner Institute, Germany
3 University of Oxford, UK
The estimation of hurricane risk is of life-and-death importance for millions of people
living on the West Coast of the Atlantic. Risk Management Solutions (RMS) provides
products and services for the quantification and management of many catastrophe
risks, including the risks associated with Atlantic hurricanes. Of particular importance
in the modeling of hurricane risk, is the estimation of future hurricane rates. We are
interested in making accurate estimates of the underlying rates associated with
Atlantic Hurricanes which make landfall.
We discuss our methodology – combining physical and statistical modeling – for
estimating the hazard and correlated risk associated with landfalling hurricanes in the
Atlantic. Of particular importance is incorporating trends in Atlantic and Pacific
tropical sea-surface temperature. A validation of the method is performed using outof-sample
hindcasting over the period 1900-2007 with bias-corrected sea-surface
temperatures from the IPCC 20 th century ensemble runs.
Abstracts 329