final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Are there lessons for historical climate field reconstruction
from paleoclimatology?
Monday - Plenary Session 4
Michael N. Evans
Dept. of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of
Maryland, College Park, USA
The comparatively severe issues in reconstruction of global gridded climate fields
from high resolution paleoproxy data throw the challenges facing historical
reconstructions based on instrumental data into sharp relief. When observations are
scarce, irregularly distributed in space and/or time, and contain large random errors
and biases, stiff tests for methodological innovations are provided.
In developing observational inputs, we should redouble data archaeological efforts in
underobserved regions, and improve subgrid-scale replication using multiple
measurement systems and data archives. We may need to focus on resolution of the
most energetic syntopic patterns, but avoid reliance on demonstrably unstable
teleconnection patterns. We should also use multiple direct and indirect means to
derive observational uncertainty estimates based on external precision at the grid
scale, and employ the subgridscale distribution of observations in the reconstruction
framework.
At the stage of analysis and infilling of climate fields, we can use efficient joint
spatiotemporal covariance recognition algorithms to identify and exploit tightly
coupled aspects of the climate system. We should employ simple process models as
physical constraints on the results, and data-level models to identify and incorporate
gridscale observational uncertainties into the reconstruction algorithm. As products
we should emphasize the statistical distribution of analyses over central measures as
end products. Finally, we should seek out all possible validation exercises spanning
the satellite, historical and late Holocene eras.
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