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11 IMSC Session Program Recent unprecedented skewness towards more positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on regional climate Monday - Parallel Session 5 Tim Cowan and Wenju Cai CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Australia During 2006-2008 a rare realization of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipoles (pIODs) occurred, including an unusual occurrence with a La Niña in 2007 (Luo et al. 2008). These consecutive pIODs contributed to the prolonged drought (termed the “Big Dry”) over southeastern Australia (SEA), preceding the devastating “Black Saturday” bushfires near Melbourne that killed over 170 people and devastated many communities. Is the recent high frequency of pIOD events a consequence of global warming? Is there a linkage between recent major bushfires over SEA and the recent skewness toward more frequent positive events? From available observations and reanalyses, there has been a pIOD frequency increase from about four per 30 years early in the 20th century to about 10 over the last 30 years (Cai et al. 2009a). By contrast, the number of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) events (that are associated with above average rainfall in SEA) has decreased from about 10 to two over the same periods. These changes in the IOD account for about 40% of the observed austral spring rainfall reduction since 1950 across SEA. Out of the 16 pIODs since 1950, 11 have been followed by a major bushfire event (Cai et al. 2009b), relating to the fact that pIODs lead to lower rainfall totals and higher temperatures during the rainy season for SEA. As a means of undertaking a statistical assessment into the rarity of such events, we take 50 years from 19 climate model simulations submitted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The simulations without climate change produce only two occurrences of three-consecutive pIOD events, whilst those with climate change the occurrence increases to 8, comparable to the observed frequency of one per century (Cai et al. 2009c). Although we cannot attribute the trigger of the observed events in 2006-2008, climate change is increasing the frequency of pIODs. This could ultimately mean an increased bushfire risk for much of SEA in the future as global warming persists. Luo, J.-J., S. Behera, Y. Masumoto, H. Sakuma, and T. Yamagata (2008), Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14S02, doi:10.1029/2007GL032793. Cai, W., T. Cowan, and A. Sullivan (2009a), Recent unprecedented skewness towards positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurrences and its impact on Australian rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11705, doi:10.1029/2009GL037604. Cai, W., T. Cowan, and M. Raupach (2009b), Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19710, doi:10.1029/2009GL039902. Abstracts 83
11 IMSC Session Program Cai, W., A. Sullivan, and T. Cowan (2009c), Climate change contributes to more frequent consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23704, doi:10.1029/2009GL040163. Abstracts 84
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