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11 IMSC Session Program Parallel Session (3 parts) 15:00 - 18:00 Part 1 - Session 7 - South Hall Extreme events and event attribution (Matilde Rusticucci, Peter Stott, Doug Nychka) Chair: Peter Stott 15:00 - 15:15 G. Nikulin, E. Kjellström, U. Hansson, G. Strandberg and A. Ullerstig - European weather extremes in an ensemble of regional climate simulations 15:15 - 15:30 Mark Palmer and Carmen Chan - Spatial-temporal modelling of extreme rainfall 15:30 - 15:45 Jan Picek, Martin Schindler and Jan Kyselý - Regression quantiles methodology for choosing the optimal threshold of the ‘peak- over- threshold’ method in climate change simulations 15:45 - 16:00 L. Speight, J. Hall, C. Kilsby and P. Kershaw - An application based approach to modelling the spatial dependencies of extreme flood risk 16:00 - 16:15 David B. Stephenson, Chun K. Ho, Mat Collins, Chris Ferro and Simon Brown - Calibration strategies for inferring future changes in extreme events from climate simulations 16:30 - 17:00 - Coffee Break - Pentland Chair: Peter Stott 17:00 - 17:15 Blair Trewin - New indices for monitoring changes in heatwaves and extended cold spells 17:15 - 17:30 Michael Wehner - Sources of uncertainty in the extreme value statistics of climate data 17:30 - 17:45 Dörte Jakob, David Karoly and Alan Seed presented by David Karoly - Recent changes in sub-hourly and daily intense rainfall events in South-East Australia 17:45 - 18:00 Daithi Stone, Chris Lennard and Mark Tadross - An operational weather risk attribution system for Africa 15:00 - 18:00 Part 2 - Session 6 - Kirkland Using observations to constrain and verify climate predictions (Francis Zwiers, Nathan Gillett, Peter Guttorp) Chair: Peter Guttorp 15:00 - 15:15 David Karoly, Frank Drost and Karl Braganza - 15:15 - 15:30 Communicating global climate change using simple indices Michael Beenstock and Yaniv Reingewertz - Polynomial cointegration tests of the anthropogenic theory of global warming Friday, July 16, 2010 27
11 IMSC Session Program 15:30 - 15:45 Simon Tett - Detection and attribution of changes in European temperature and precipitation 15:45 - 16:00 Gabriele Hegerl, Juerg Luterbacher, Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Simon Tett and Elena Xoplaki - Influence of external forcing on European temperatures 16:00 - 16:15 Aurélien Ribes and Serge Planton - Comparing the spatial features of observed and simulated climate change over the Mediterranean basin 16:15 - 16:30 Francis W. Zwiers, Xuebin Zhang and Yang Feng - Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales 16:30 - 16:45 - Coffee Break - Pentland Chair: Francis Zwiers 16:45 - 17:00 Paulo Ceppi, Simon C. Scherrer and C. Appenzeller - Spatial characteristics of gridded Swiss temperature trends: Local and large-scale influences 17:00 - 17:15 Snigdhansu Chatterjee - Statistical evidence of recent climate change: An analysis of Arctic seawater data 17:15 - 17:30 Irina Mahlstein and Reto Knutti - Ocean heat transport as a key process for model spread in Arctic warming 17:30 - 17:45 Bettina C. Lackner, Gabi C. Hegerl, Andrea K. Steiner and Gottfried Kirchengast - The radio occultation record for atmospheric climate change detection 17:45 - 18:00 Daniel Feldman, Chris Algieri, Jonathan Ong, William Collins - Observational system simulation experiments of CLARREO shortwave reflectance spectra 15:00 - 17:00 Part 3 - Session 1 - St Trinneann Ensemble techniques: design (Richard Chandler, Marian Scott) Chair: Marian Scott 15:00 - 15:30 Ed Hawkins and Rowan Sutton - The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions 15:30 - 16:00 Yaeji Lim, Seongil Jo, Jaeyong Lee, Hee-Seok Oh and Hyun- Suk Kang - Multi-model ensemble forecasting of rainfall over East Asia region using regularized regression 16:00 - 16:30 C. McSweeney and R. G. Jones - PRECIS + QUMP: Experimental design of small-ensemble regional modelling experiments for developing regions of the world 16:30 - 17:00 - Coffee Break - Pentland Friday, July 16, 2010 28
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11 IMSC Session Program Methodologi
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11 IMSC Session Program What can we
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11 IMSC Session Program Constructin
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11 IMSC Session Program Historical
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11 IMSC Session Program A Bayesian
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11 IMSC Session Program CORDEX: Dev
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11 IMSC Session Program Downscaling
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11 IMSC Session Program Are current
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11 IMSC Session Program Uncertainty
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11 IMSC Session Program Using a per
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11 IMSC Session Program 3 Keef, C.,
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11 IMSC Session Program Sources of
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