final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Understanding recent climate change in key regions of Russia
Wednesday - Poster Session 5
Anton Ye. Shadursky ,Vladimir A. Lobanov
Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St.Petersburg, Russia
Russian area gives the main contribution in raise of global temperature in present as
well as in the nearest future. Scenarios lead to increasing of temperature up 10-120C
on the north of Siberia under increasing of the global temperature on 40C and the
most modern regional warming take place in the center part of the East Siberia. For
understating of modern situation the longest climate records of monthly temperature
and precipitation have been chosen on the Russia area. Whole Russia has been
divided into 22 homogeneous regions and sub-regions where the close relationships
between average regional temperature and the temperature records at the particular
stations take place. Three main competition time series models have been used for
records of average regional temperature: stationary sample, linear trend and
“jumping” model. Efficiency of each model has been obtained by standard error of
remainders and Fisher’s test. As a result, the “jumping” model gave the minimum of
standard deviation of errors in 55% cases and the same results as other models for rest
regions. Statistical significance of conclusions under Fisher’s test takes place for 3
regions of the East Siberia only. For understanding of such situation more detailed
analysis has been realized in two key regions of Russia: north of West Siberia (the
most future increasing) and the center part of the East Siberia (the most present
increasing).
Inside the north of West Siberia, 16 stations have been chosen with records of
maximum daily precipitation, monthly precipitation and temperature. Dixon, Fisher
and Student statistical tests have been applied for assessment of homogeneity and
stationarity. There hypothesis have been accepted in all cases practically for
maximum daily precipitation and two exclusion cases connect with maximum
extremes of empirical probable distributions. The obtained non-stationarity in time
series of monthly precipitation is displayed as a step increasing in the 1960s and for
cold period only and for the stations near the Polar Ocean, where the strong winds are
observed. The cause of such non-stationarity is a change of register devises, after that
the precipitation have not a systematic decreasing under wind blow out. Monthly
temperature have stationary regime in the most cases and the exclusion observed for
the March month only as a step increasing in 1970s and caused by change of
atmospheric circulations epochs. The main conclusion that the temperature regime is
stable and no any reason to wait a great changes in the nearest future for this region.
In the center part of the East Siberia some long-term records of annual temperature
with information up to 2009 have been processed. The main result, if information of
all 12 months has been used for calculation of annual temperature, that there is a step
raising temperature on 0.7-2.00C for the particular stations of this region from 1990s.
Abstracts 218