final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Predicting extremes in the midlatitudinal atmospheric
circulation using regime-dependent modelling
Thursday - Parallel Session 7
Frank Kwasniok
University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Prediction and predictability of extreme events in the midlatitudinal atmospheric
circulation are studied using a mixture of empirical statistical models. Estimation of
the model parameters is combined with a clustering algorithm; each model is
conditional on the flow regime the system is in. Prediction and predictability of
extreme events are investigated as a function of initial condition, event rarity and
event magnitude. The contribution aims to introduce the methodology into the
statistical climatology community; the ideas are explored in a quasigeostrophic
atmospheric low-order model.
Abstracts 254