final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Linear and non linear persistence in climate and its effect on
the extremes
Wednesday - Plenary Session 10
Armin Bunde, Sabine Lennartz and Mikhail Bogachev
Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Universitaet Giessen, Germany
We discuss the occurrence of long-term memory in climate. We show that long-term
memory leads to a clustering of extreme events, a phenomenon which is well known
from the reported floods in central Europe over the last 6 centuries. We also consider
the effect of nonlinear memory that is particularly important in precipitation data, and
discuss how it can be used for risk estimation.
Abstracts 159