final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
16:15 – 16:45 Coffee Break - Pentland
14:45 – 17:52 Part 3 - Session 3 - St Trinneann (15 minutes talk + 3 minutes
discussion)
International Centre for Mathematical Sciences Special Session: Reconstructing
and understanding climate over the Holocene (Gabi Hegerl, Jonathan Rougier,
Juerg Luterbacher)
Chair: Gabi Hegerl
14:45 – 15:03 Caitlin Buck - Changing the focus: Studying uncertainty in
palaeoclimate reconstruction
15:03 – 15:21 Andrew C. Parnell and John Haslett - The use of chronologies
in Holocene palaeoclimate reconstruction
15:21 – 15:39 Christian Schoelzel and Eugene Wahl - Probabilistic model for
palaeo temperature reconstructions based on pollen ratios
15:39 – 15:57 Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward, Michael N. Evans, Malcolm K.
Hughes and Kevin J. Anchukaitis - Mechanistic modeling of
proxy data for Bayesian climate reconstructions
15:57 – 16:15 Vincent Garreta and Joël Guiot - Process-based reconstruction
of palaeoclimate from pollen data
16:15 – 16:45 Coffee Break - Pentland
Chair: Juerg Luterbacher
16:45 – 17:03 Ailie Gallant, Joelle Gergis and Karl Braganza - Quantifying
uncertainties associated with calibrating proxy data against
instrumental records – an ensemble approach
17:03 – 17:21 Thomas Crowley - An unforced decadal-scale oscillation in the
1400s
17:21 – 17:39 Frank Kwasniok and Gerrit Lohmann - Deriving dynamical
models of glacial millennial-scale climate variability from icecore
records: parameter estimation, model performance and
model selection
16:45 – 18:00 Part 4 - Session 5 - Kirkland
Predictions of climate change relevant for impacts (Xuebin Zhang, Bruce
Hewitson)
Chair: Xuebin Zhang
16:45 – 17:00 Bryson C. Bates, Richard E. Chandler, Stephen P. Charles and
Edward P. Campbell - Assessment of apparent non-stationarity
in time series of annual inflow, daily precipitation and
atmospheric circulation indices: A case study from Southwest
Western Australia
17:00 – 17:15 Juan Feng, Jianping Li and Yun Li - A new monsoon-like
Southwest Australian circulation index explains rainfall decline
in Southwest Western Australia
Monday, July 12, 2010 5