final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Designing ensembles for climate prediction
Thursday - Plenary Session 1
Peter Challenor
The key to the analysis of data is in the design of the experiment, yet climate model
experiments are often badly designed making analysis difficult. I will outline the
principles of experimental design as applied to computer experiments. Starting with
experiments with a single climate model I will review space filling designs and
outline new approaches to sequential design and how you might cope with nonquantitative
variables. Here an initial space filling design is augmented by further
model runs to improve the design in the light of the initial experiment. The more
difficult problem of how to design multi-model experiments will then be considered.
Abstracts 230