final_program_abstracts[1]

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11 IMSC Session Program 13:45 – 14:00 F. Niehörster, M. Collins, U. Cubasch - Comparing cloud feedbacks in perturbed-physics ensembles from two different GCMs 14:00 – 14:15 Nathalie Schaller, Jan Cermak and Reto Knutti - Model evaluation of the hydrological cycle in the present and future climate 14:15 – 14:30 M. C. Cuellar and A. Lopez - Extraction of information from a global climate model perturbed physics ensemble 14:30 – 14:45 D. Masson and R. Knutti - Constraining climate sensitivity by natural interannual variability in the CMIP3 ensemble 14:45 – 15:00 David Stainforth - The inapplicability of traditional statistical methods in climate ensembles 15:00 – 15:30 Coffee Break - Pentland Chair: Reto Knutti 15:30 – 15:45 Robert Fildes and Nikos Kourentzes - Forecast encompassing testing of statistical time series climate forecasts of global temperature and their implications for global circulation models 15:45 – 16:00 H. W. Rust, M. Vrac, M. Lengaigne and B. Sultan - Quantifying differences in circulation patterns with probabilistic method 16:00 – 16:15 T. Halenka, P. Skalak, P. Huszar and M. Belda - How can RCMs reproduce the annual cycle and what we can learn from it 16:15 – 16:30 Dan Rowlands, Dave Frame, Tolu Aina, Nicolai Meinshausen and Myles Allen - Quantifying uncertainty in climate forecasts from climateprediction.net 13:30 - 16:45 Part 2 - Session 7 - South Hall Extreme events and event attribution (Matilde Rusticucci, Peter Stott, Doug Nychka) Chair: Matilde Rusticucci 13:30 – 13:45 Leila M. V. Carvalho and Charles Jones - Extreme variations in the American Monsoon Systems: An integrated overview based on a multivariate index 13:45 – 14:00 Barbara Casati, Louis Lefaivre and R. De Elia - Analysis of regional climate projections of extreme precipitation and temperatures by using an Extreme Value Theory non-stationary model 14:00 – 14:15 Defu Liu, Huajun Li, Liang Pang and Fengqing Wang - Extreme value prediction of typhoon events – Models and applications 14:15 – 14:30 Jonathan M. Eden and Martin Widmann - Estimating future changes in daily precipitation distribution from GCM simulations Thursday, July 15, 2010 19
11 IMSC Session Program 14:30 – 14:45 Hayley J. Fowler, Daniel Cooley, Stephan R. Sain and Milo Thurston - Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC Climate Change Experiment 14:45 – 15:00 Ailie Gallant and David Karoly - Variations of climate extremes in Australia during 1911-2008 15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break - Pentland Chair: Peter Stott 15:30 – 15:45 Alexander Gluhovsky - Subsampling inference for trends and extremes in climate data 15:45 – 16:00 Malcolm R. Haylock - European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a high-resolution multi-model ensemble of dynamically downscaled global climate models 16:05 – 16:15 Frank Kwasniok - Predicting extremes in the midlatitudinal atmospheric circulation using regime-dependent modelling 16:15 – 16:30 Won-Tae Kwon, Hee-Jeong Baek and Hyo-Shin Lee - Characteristics of extreme events in Korea: Observations and projections 16:30 – 16:45 Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers and Gabriele C. Hegerl - Detection of human influence on extreme precipitation 13:30 - 15:00 Part 3 - Session 10 - St Trinneann Long term memory (Peter Guttorp and Peter Craigmile) Chair: Peter Craigmile 13:30 – 13:45 H. W. Rust, O. Mestre and V. Venema - Inhomogeneities in temperature records deceive long-range dependence estimators 13:45 – 14:00 T. Schmith, S. Johansen and P. Thejll - Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using nonstationary methods 14:00 – 14:15 Sabine Lennartz and Armin Bunde - Estimation of the anthropogenic trend in temperature records 14:15 – 14:30 Christian Franzke - On the statistical significance of climate trends 14:30 - 15:00 - Coffee Break - Pentland 15:00 - 16:45 Part 4 - Session 6 - St Trinneann - South Hall Using observations to constrain and verify climate predictions (Francis Zwiers, Nathan Gillett, Peter Guttorp) Chair: Francis Zwiers 15:00 – 15:15 Lauren E. Padilla, Geoffrey K. Vallis and Clarence W. Rowley - Combined effects of forcing uncertainty and natural Thursday, July 15, 2010 20
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11 IMSC Session Program The survey
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11 IMSC Session Program Methodologi
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11 IMSC Session Program Non-linear
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11 IMSC Session Program What can we
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11 IMSC Session Program Constructin
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11 IMSC Session Program An intercom
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11 IMSC Session Program Historical
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11 IMSC Session Program A Bayesian
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11 IMSC Session Program CORDEX: Dev
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11 IMSC Session Program Downscaling
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11 IMSC Session Program Comparison
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11 IMSC Session Program for each mo
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11 IMSC Session Program Designing e
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11 IMSC Session Program Multi-model
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11 IMSC Session Program Using a per
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11 IMSC Session Program The limited
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11 IMSC Session Program Prediction
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