final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
Spatial-temporal modelling of extreme rainfall
Friday - Parallel Session 7
Mark Palmer and Carmen Chan
CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics, Climate Adaptation Flagship,
Australia
Extreme rainfall over the south-west of Western Australia and the Sydney region of
NSW over the last fifty years has been modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical
approach. A Gaussian process, derived from a convolution kernel approach, is
incorporated to model spatial variability of the rainfall distribution. This is a flexible
approach, accommodating rainfall measured over different durations (from sub- to
super-daily) and also allowing for the possibility of linking the extremes to external
drivers.
The approach can be used to characterize the behaviour of extremes under present day
and projected future conditions. It can be used to derive intensity-duration-frequency
curves together with estimates of their associated uncertainties, for specific locations
that can be either gauged or ungauged, which provides information for the design of
engineering structures such as culverts, bridges, and stormwater and sewerage
systems. Further extensions to model extremes of areal rainfall are being developed.
Abstracts 337