Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

Annex 6
Tourism
Pre-disaster Situation
The 2009 floods which affected the six Regions in northern
Namibia had an adverse effect on tourism in the country.
Kavango and Caprivi have a considerable number of naturebased
tourism lodges, which are concentrated along the rivers
that flooded. Most of the north-central region is not a major
destination for international tourists, but it still benefits from
through-traffic, and Etosha National Park, although at the
southern periphery of the area affected, is one of Namibia’s
biggest tourism revenue earners.
The tourism sector in Namibia has shown strong growth in
recent years, but the current global economic downturn
is expected to decimate any potential for growth this year.
Hence, wherever a projection is required for what would
have happened without the flooding, 2008 data is taken as
the baseline scenario, including for national park visitor rates
as above.
Damage and Losses Assessment
Structural damage to tourist facilities was relatively rare (other
than for access roads across floodplains), and most damage
consisted of numerous small maintenance activities, such as
cleaning floors, re-painting, replacing doors, clearing drains,
replanting grass and gardens, etc. These diffuse clean-up and
repair tasks were difficult to itemize and analyze separately, and
therefore combined estimates of the overall damage for each
business were made. Losses were treated similarly, as much of
the income is derived from food, drink and other add-ons such
as varied tours and activities, rather than room charges alone.
Some tourist lodges were directly flooded and forced to close.
A greater number suffered from loss of road access (in Kavango
and Caprivi access roads across the floodplains tended to be
submerged before the riverbank lodges themselves, which are
slightly raised on natural levees), and of interruptions to other
services (e.g., power, access to clean water, sanitation facilities
and telecommunications). A number of operators complained
of a wider impact due to the negative publicity of the flooding
and perceptions that the impact was greater and for a longer
period than was true. Although many businesses managed to
avoid the worst, some in Oshikoto, Kavango and Caprivi are
still struggling to recover.
Estimates were based on the figures provided by owners
themselves, in some cases backed by contractor quotes and
account books. Verification was via comparison with estimates
for other facilities similarly impacted, and in a small number
of cases unrealistic estimates were rejected. Where credible
estimates were not available for facilities known or reliably
reported to have been affected, typical estimates of damage and
losses were used based on figures for other businesses in the
same category (i.e. campsite, small lodge, or lodge). The ‘lodge’
category accounted for the majority of operations. Although
there is considerable variation in the room rates charged by
different lodges, many clustered around the N$500 per night
mark, and there is a strong inverse relationship between room
rate and capacity, such that the overall size of the businesses
is similar.
Damage and loss estimates for the tourism sector in Kavango
and Caprivi were subject to a number of uncertainties. In
particular:
• Water levels in the Kwandu River in Caprivi
were still rising at the end of the field assessment.
Lodges along this river had not been greatly
impacted to date, but the subsequent couple of
weeks were expected to be critical.
• It was not possible to visit or contact the lodges
in Impalila and Kasika at the far eastern tip of
Caprivi, which are generally higher-end operations.
Estimates of impact on these are therefore based
on second-hand reports of the affect on their
business operations.
• It is difficult to estimate the impact on trophy
hunting revenue because the hunting season
is still at an early stage. Quotas are issued for
the year, and it was therefore necessary to
estimate whether disruption from flooding at the
start of the season might result in a significant
failure to reach the allocation by the end of the
season. Since animals move across international
boundaries and are hunted in more than one
country, animals not hunted this year were not
considered to be necessarily available to be
hunted in subsequent years.
Of the around 45 private operations in the affected areas,
24 were assessed to have been impacted, of which 18 were
lodges, three were small lodges and three were campsites.
Typical figures used to fill in missing estimates were N$275,000,
N$50,000 and N$50,000 for lost revenue (two months
closure) to lodges, small lodges and campsites respectively, and
N$300,000 for damage to lodges. The total damage and losses
are provided in Table 66.
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