Namibia PDNA 2009 - GFDRR

prolonged dry spells and droughts), water availability (negative recharge
rates of ground water; seasonally increased run-off from areas that
are expected to receive more rainfall, i.e. Angola’s central highlands),
health (heat impacts, water stress, and spread of certain diseases such
as malaria), and infrastructure (esp. through flooding damage), are to be
expected. Preliminary estimates of climate change impact on natural
resources alone (agriculture and fisheries) suggest that Namibia could
lose annually between 1 and 6 percent if no action is taken to adapt to
climate change 4 . This will affect the poor most because they are more
dependent on natural resources.
Climate Change Hazard Exposure in the
Flood-Affected Regions 5 7
Figure 7: Increased desertification is only one
of many potential risks from climate change
The majority of the population living in the six flood-affected Regions is directly dependent on subsistence agriculture, livestock
rearing, forestry, eco- tourism, indigenous biodiversity and fisheries. Increasingly, due to the effects of worsening climatic conditions on
long-term agricultural productivity, the adaptive capacities of farmers, pastoralists and natural resource managers are compromised.
Land degradation – soil erosion, bush encroachment and deforestation – is becoming progressively worse in most parts of the
country, but more acute in the six flood-affected Regions. This leads to vegetation degradation and loss of soil fertility which affects
agricultural productivity. Climate change is expected to only exacerbate this trend.
The expected climate change impacts in the regions include: decline in water availability and increasing temperatures, due to higher
evapo-transpiration and changing patterns of rainfall. This, in turn, will affect water resources within the Cuvelai-Etosha Basin, the
Kavango and Zambezi Rivers, forests, and other natural ecological systems, agriculture and food security, power generation at Ruacana,
infrastructure (housing, shelters and roads, telecommunication), tourism (lodges, camping sites, game) and human health (diseases,
sanitation and water quality).
This is further likely to increase competition and conflict for scarce
resources like water and arable land, which could lead to political
instability and climate refugees, as well as unsustainable practices.
Changing patterns and intensity of rainfall are likely to increase the
rate of soil erosion, negatively affecting crop production and livestock
rearing.
Figure 8: Flooding occurred in
three of the past five years
An increased incidence and severity of extreme weather events, such as
flooding, will worsen soil erosion and destroy crops. Climate change will
affect the agricultural yields directly through changes in temperature and
precipitation, and indirectly through changes in soil quality, introduction
of pests, and diseases. Coping strategies for climate change need to be
enhanced at local, regional and national levels. Addressing adaptation to
climate change is one of the national priorities as reported in Namibia’s
Initial National Communication (INC).
4 The economic impact of climate change in Namibia. How Climate Change will affect the contribution of Namibia’s natural resources to its
economy? IIED discussion paper 07-02, November 2007.
5 Climate change is not the only contributing factor to flooding in the region. The magnitude of floods also depends on land
management and policy responses, and deliberate deforestation, land degradation, and urban planning that does not address
flooding vulnerabilities also contribute to exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. In addition to these issues, however, climate
change is poised to bring increasing variability and vulnerability to the region.
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Namibia POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT